Fluminense vs Chelsea Preview

• Over 2.5 goals
• Both teams to score

The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup semi-finals are upon us, and a compelling clash in Orlando awaits as Fluminense, surprise contenders once again, prepare to face Premier League side Chelsea. With both sides having battled through five gruelling matches to reach this point, the stage is set for a fascinating duel, with a spot in the tournament final at stake.

Match News and Current Form

Fluminense’s journey to the last four has been nothing short of remarkable. After finishing as runners-up in the 2023 edition of the tournament following a loss to Manchester City, the Brazilian side have once again defied expectations. Their 2-1 quarter-final victory over Al Hilal was hard-earned, having surrendered an early lead before regaining control and sealing the win.

The Rio-based side remain unbeaten at the 2025 tournament (W3, D2) and have shown they are no strangers to top-level opposition, famously defeating UEFA Champions League finalists Inter Milan earlier in the competition. Conceding in only two of their five matches to date, their defensive foundation has been rock solid, while an 11-match unbeaten streak across all competitions (W8, D3) has further bolstered confidence within the squad.

On the opposite side, Chelsea arrive in the semi-finals with the weight of expectation firmly on their shoulders. After edging Palmeiras 2-1 in the quarter-finals, the Blues are the last European side standing and are viewed by many as favourites to lift the trophy. They have already secured UEFA Champions League qualification and lifted the UEFA Conference League trophy this season, but the Club World Cup would provide a crowning achievement for new manager Enzo Maresca.

However, Chelsea’s route through the tournament has not been without hiccups. They finished second in Group D behind Flamengo, losing to the Brazilian outfit 3-1 before narrowly navigating past Espérance de Tunis and Benfica in the knockout rounds. Defensive frailty has been a concern, with no clean sheets recorded in the knockout stages, and they will be wary of a Fluminense side that has proven capable of capitalising on any slip-ups.

Head-to-Head History

This match marks the first-ever competitive meeting between Fluminense and Chelsea. However, both sides have some prior experience against clubs from the other’s region. Fluminense will remember their CWC final defeat to Manchester City in 2023, while Chelsea have already faced two Brazilian opponents at this year’s tournament – Flamengo in the group stage and Palmeiras in the quarter-finals – with mixed results (W1, L1).

Key Players to Watch

Veteran goalkeeper Fábio has been a crucial figure in Fluminense’s run to the semi-finals. At 44 years of age, he is the oldest player at the 2025 Club World Cup and has used every ounce of his experience to great effect. He has made 14 saves from the 17 shots he has faced at the tournament and kept three clean sheets, including key moments that helped his side advance from tight contests.

Chelsea, meanwhile, will look to Cole Palmer to provide the spark in attack. The former Manchester City man ended an eight-game goal drought with a well-taken opener against Palmeiras in the last round.

With his vision, technical skill, and calm finishing ability, Palmer has the potential to be a game-changer, especially with the South American side’s physical style often giving space to nimble playmakers.

Team News and Absentees

Fluminense are missing a couple of key players heading into this semi-final. Quarter-final goalscorer Martinelli and defender Juan Freytes are both suspended, which weakens their ability at both ends of the pitch. Their absence will require tactical adjustments, particularly in defence, where Freytes’ presence had been integral to their structure.

Chelsea have some suspension issues of their own. Young striker Liam Delap and central defender Levi Colwill are unavailable after picking up yellow cards in the previous round. The Blues are, however, expected to welcome back several key players who were rested or rotated in recent fixtures.

Hot Stats and Streaks

• Fluminense have collected 11 yellow cards across their last three matches at the Club World Cup.
• Eight different players have scored their eight goals at this tournament, showing a wide attacking spread.
• Chelsea have been shown exactly three yellow cards in each of their two knockout matches at the CWC.
• The Premier League club has also been fouled a tournament-high 74 times, indicating the physical nature of the challenges they’ve faced.
• All four of the goals Chelsea have conceded at this tournament have come in the second half.

Betting Analysis

With Fluminense’s knack for frustrating opponents and Chelsea’s unconvincing defensive showings, this semi-final is shaping up to be a high-stakes, closely fought affair. Given that Chelsea have conceded in all three of their CWC knockout appearances and Fluminense have breached some of the best defences in the competition, backing both teams to score appears to be a sensible wager.

A Chelsea victory remains the most likely outcome, particularly given their attacking depth and Fluminense’s suspensions. But bettors may also find value in markets such as Chelsea to win and both teams to score, or even a draw at half-time before Chelsea take control in the second half.

Prediction

Fluminense’s run has been impressive and they’ve already surpassed expectations by reaching back-to-back Club World Cup semi-finals. However, the depth and quality of Chelsea’s squad – despite their imperfections – should ultimately carry them through. Expect a competitive match with chances for both sides, but Chelsea’s class and experience may shine in the latter stages.

Predicted score: Fluminense 1-2 Chelsea

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https://www.fifa.com/en/match-centre/match/10005/289175/289188/400019208