Aston Villa vs PSG Preview

• Draw
• Both teams to score

Aston Villa saw their dream of lifting Europe’s most coveted trophy for the first time in the modern era take a hit in Paris, as a 3-1 first-leg defeat against French champions Paris Saint-Germain left their UEFA Champions League (UCL) hopes hanging in the balance. However, Unai Emery’s men are no strangers to European comebacks, and they return to Villa Park knowing they’ll need something special under the floodlights to overturn a two-goal deficit and reach the semi-finals.

Villa returned to winning ways in the Premier League over the weekend with a commanding 3-0 triumph over already-relegated Southampton. That result not only maintained their position in the top-five race, but also saw them make Premier League history by becoming the first side to have three different substitutes score in a single game. That kind of squad depth may prove crucial with the games coming thick and fast at this decisive stage of the season.

While Emery will be frustrated by how the first leg got away from his side after Morgan Rogers gave them an early lead, the Spaniard can lean on past experience for inspiration. He has managed a comeback in seven of 12 European knockout ties in which his side lost the first leg away from home. Villa’s form at home in European competition also bodes well, having won ten of their last 12 European fixtures at Villa Park (D1, L1), with their last three Champions League home wins all coming via multi-goal margins.

Adding to that sense of optimism is Villa’s encouraging record against French sides on home soil. The West Midlands club have won three of their four such encounters (L1), and while PSG represent a different calibre of opponent, Emery’s men have already proven this season that they can mix it with Europe’s elite.

For PSG, this trip to Birmingham comes after a weekend off, with their Ligue 1 clash postponed to allow Luis Enrique’s men maximum time to prepare for what could be a season-defining night. That rest could prove vital, particularly given PSG’s ongoing hunt for a maiden Champions League crown, having fallen just short in their runners-up finish in 2020.

The Parisians boast a marginally positive record from their five previous clashes against Premier League opposition this season (W3, L2), and notably ended a four-game losing streak away to English clubs by winning 2-1 at Anfield in the previous round. That result showed their ability to manage tough away legs, but Villa Park is a different beast and the home crowd is sure to create an electric atmosphere.

When it comes to quarter-finals in the UCL, PSG’s track record is evenly split (W4, L4), but the historical edge may be on their side this time. They’ve progressed from 13 of the 19 European ties in which they won the first leg at home, a conversion rate that will instil confidence amongst the travelling contingent. Yet it won’t be lost on Enrique that both of PSG’s two-goal away defeats in this season’s competition came on English soil – a warning that this tie is far from over.

This clash is poised to produce fireworks, with both sides boasting attacking talent capable of turning games on their head. Villa’s Morgan Rogers continues to grow in stature, and his well-taken goal in the first leg was his 15th strike in a scoring appearance for the club – each one accompanied by both teams finding the net and the match seeing over 2.5 goals.

On the opposite side, PSG’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has come into form at exactly the right time. The Georgian winger’s stunning effort in the first leg added to a growing tally, with five goal involvements across his last four appearances for club and country (G3, A2). His willingness to shoot on sight – with at least five attempts in each of his last three UCL matches – means Villa’s full-backs will need to be on high alert.

Key Stats

• Aston Villa have progressed from 7 of 12 European ties after losing the first leg away.
• PSG have reached the UCL semi-finals in two of the last four seasons.
• Villa have won 10 of their last 12 European home matches (D1, L1), including the last three UCL home wins by multiple goals.
• PSG have lost only two of their last 13 away UCL games (W9, D2, L2), though both defeats by 2+ goals were in England.
• Villa’s last three home matches in European competition have all seen 3+ goals and both teams score.

Players to Watch

Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa): The 21-year-old winger continues to shine, with his opener in Paris making it 15 scoring appearances this term – all featuring both teams on the scoresheet and over 2.5 total goals.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG): A standout performer in the first leg, Kvaratskhelia is in red-hot form. His ability to create and finish chances, especially from distance, makes him a constant threat.

Prediksi

The tie is finely poised despite PSG’s first-leg advantage. Villa’s strong home form, combined with their fighting spirit under Emery, suggests this won’t be a straightforward evening for the visitors. Expect goals and drama, but PSG’s firepower could just be enough to edge them through.

Prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 PSG (PSG progress 5-3 on aggregate)

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Aston Villa vs Paris | UEFA Champions League 2024/25