Burnley vs Arsenal avant-première

• Arsenal gagne
• Moins de 3,5 buts

Burnley’s confidence is on the rise after two successive Premier League victories, but Scott Parker’s side now face their toughest assignment yet as table-topping Arsenal arrive at Turf Moor. The Gunners are chasing a fifth straight league win and will be expected to maintain their title momentum against an improving but still inconsistent Burnley outfit.

After a rocky start to the campaign, Burnley finally appear to have found their footing in the Premier League. Successive wins against Leeds and Wolves have lifted them five points clear of the relegation zone, easing the early pressure on Scott Parker. Their dramatic 95th-minute winner at Molineux last Sunday demonstrated the spirit and fight that was missing earlier in the season, and the Clarets will now look to record three straight top-flight victories for the first time since April 2022.

However, Saturday’s clash represents a significant step up in difficulty. Burnley have not beaten one of the Premier League’s traditional ‘big six’ since February 2022, and their record in such fixtures last season was bleak — six home defeats from six, including a 5-0 drubbing by Arsenal. For all their recent progress, this fixture serves as a true litmus test of how far Parker’s men have come.

Arsenal, by contrast, are purring. Mikel Arteta’s side continue to combine defensive steel with attacking composure, grinding out a 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace last weekend to maintain their three-point cushion at the summit. The Gunners’ defence has been outstanding — conceding just three league goals all season — and that resilience has underpinned a run of four consecutive Premier League wins.

A fifth straight victory would be Arsenal’s longest such streak since August 2024, and their form away from home offers little hope for the hosts. Arteta’s men have lost just once in their last 18 Premier League away matches (W10, D7), and their record against newly-promoted sides is formidable: 23 wins in their last 24 such fixtures (L1). Arsenal’s consistency, professionalism, and defensive dominance make them overwhelming favourites once again.

Historique du face-à-face

Burnley’s history against Arsenal is one of unrelenting frustration. The Clarets have faced the Gunners nine times at Turf Moor in the Premier League without a single victory (D3, L6) — their longest winless home run against any opponent in the competition.

Four of Arsenal’s six victories in that period came by a 1-0 margin, reflecting how often they’ve done just enough to get the job done in Lancashire. To make matters worse for Burnley, they have never scored more than once in a Premier League match against the Gunners, underlining the scale of the challenge ahead.

Statistiques et séries chaudes

• Burnley haven’t scored more than once in any of their 18 Premier League games against Arsenal.
• Only Liverpool’s Premier League matches (3.33) have averaged more goals this season than Burnley’s (3.22).
• Arsenal have scored 15 of their 16 league goals this season after the 30th minute.
• Arsenal have picked up a joint-league low nine yellow cards this campaign, highlighting their composure.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Zian Flemming has emerged as a key figure for Burnley, finally opening his Premier League account with a first-half brace against Wolves.

Interestingly, all ten of his most recent league goals have arrived before half-time, which could make his contribution crucial if Burnley are to unsettle Arsenal early.

For Arsenal, Leandro Trossard could be the man to watch. The Belgian playmaker has an impressive record in this fixture, having both scored and assisted in each of the last two Premier League meetings between the sides.

His ability to drift into space and exploit defensive gaps has made him one of Arteta’s most reliable attacking outlets this term.

In terms of team news, Burnley may be without midfielder Lesley Ugochukwu, who limped off late in the win over Wolves. Arsenal’s injury list continues to grow, with William Saliba withdrawn against Crystal Palace to join Martin Ødegaard and Noni Madueke on the sidelines. Despite these setbacks, Arsenal’s depth remains formidable.

Tactical Overview

Scott Parker will likely set Burnley up in their familiar possession-oriented 4-3-3 shape, but against Arsenal, pragmatism may take priority. Expect the hosts to adopt a more compact mid-block, seeking to frustrate Arsenal and hit on the counter through the pace of Jacob Bruun Larsen and the energy of Flemming. However, maintaining defensive discipline for 90 minutes will be essential against such a well-drilled opponent.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal will continue with their 4-3-3 structure built on controlled possession and territorial dominance. Declan Rice’s authority in midfield, coupled with the overlapping runs of Oleksandr Zinchenko and Ben White, will be key to stretching Burnley’s shape. Patience has been a hallmark of Arsenal’s performances this season, with the majority of their goals arriving in the final hour of play — a pattern that could repeat here.

Analyse des paris

Arsenal’s defensive consistency and historical dominance in this fixture make them strong favourites, but Burnley’s recent revival and fighting spirit suggest this might not be straightforward. Given that Arsenal’s last two league victories have been narrow 1-0 wins and that four of their last six league triumphs over Burnley came by the same scoreline, an Arsenal win by a one-goal margin appears an attractive option.

Alternatively, Arsenal to win and under 3.5 total goals offers solid value, reflecting both sides’ defensive focus and the Gunners’ tendency to control matches rather than chase high-scoring outcomes.

Prediction: Burnley 0–1 Arsenal

Burnley will likely compete well in front of their home fans, but Arsenal’s class, structure, and patience should eventually prevail. Expect a tight contest decided by a moment of quality — exactly the kind of performance that defines title contenders.

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Burnley v Arsenal | 2025/2026 | Premier League | Overview