Brighton vs Leeds Preview

• Victoria del Brighton
• Ambos equipos marcarán

Brighton return to the Amex Stadium this weekend hoping to rediscover their winning touch in the Premier League, as they take on a Leeds side seeking back-to-back victories for the first time in nearly two years. The Seagulls have enjoyed a strong recent record in this fixture and will be eager to extend that dominance as they look to climb the table.

Brighton’s start to the campaign has been a mixed one, as their 4-2 defeat to Manchester United last time out left them with a perfectly balanced record of three wins, three draws and three losses in the Premier League. Fabian Hürzeler’s men have shown flashes of their trademark attacking brilliance, but defensive lapses have cost them points — particularly in the first half of matches. The Seagulls have conceded eight first-half goals this season while scoring only three, yet their resilience has been admirable, recovering seven points from losing positions — a joint-league high.

A return to home comforts may be exactly what Brighton need to regain momentum. They remain unbeaten in eight home league games (W4, D4), and the Amex continues to be a venue where they play their most fluid football. The fans will expect a response after last weekend’s defeat at Old Trafford, particularly against a Leeds side who have often struggled on their travels.

Leeds arrive buoyed by a morale-boosting 2-1 win over West Ham, a result that halted a run of back-to-back defeats against Tottenham and Burnley. That victory lifted Daniel Farke’s side further clear of the relegation zone and provided a platform to build on. The challenge now is to maintain that momentum — something the Whites have found difficult to do in recent years.

Indeed, Leeds haven’t managed consecutive Premier League wins since November 2022, and a concerning trend looms large: they’ve followed up their last six league victories with a negative result (D1, L5). Their away record is equally worrying, with eight losses from their last nine top-flight away matches (W1) while conceding an average of 2.66 goals per game in that run. Those defensive vulnerabilities will need to be addressed if they are to stand a chance against a Brighton side who thrive at home.

Historia del cara a cara

The history of this fixture firmly favours Brighton, who remain unbeaten in all six Premier League meetings with Leeds (W3, D3). That run is their longest undefeated streak against any opponent in the competition. Conversely, Leeds have never beaten Brighton in the Premier League, making this their most-played fixture in the competition without a win.

Adding to that psychological edge, Brighton have kept a clean sheet in all seven of their home league meetings with Leeds — the longest such run against any club in the Seagulls’ history. It’s a trend they will be desperate to extend, particularly given their defensive struggles so far this season.

Estadísticas y rachas

• Brighton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last seven home league games against Leeds — their longest run against any opponent.
• The Seagulls have not kept a clean sheet in their last 11 Premier League matches.
• Leeds have scored just two second-half goals in the Premier League this season — only Nottingham Forest have fewer (one).
• Leeds have failed to score in three of their last four league away matches.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Charalampos Kostoulas could be a name to watch for Brighton after scoring his first Premier League goal in last weekend’s defeat at Old Trafford.

Interestingly, his previous four league goals have all come at home, suggesting he thrives in front of the Amex faithful. His pace and directness could pose problems for a Leeds defence prone to being stretched.

For Leeds, midfielder Sean Longstaff has been one of their most influential figures in recent weeks.

With three goal contributions in his last four league outings (one goal, two assists), the 26-year-old’s energy and creativity have been vital to Leeds’ attacking play. He’ll also have fond memories of this fixture, having scored against Brighton in one of his recent appearances.

In terms of team news, Brighton are sweating on the fitness of James Milner, who remains a doubt to face his former club. Leeds could again be without Wilfried Gnonto and Gabriel Gudmundsson, both of whom are struggling with injury.

Resumen táctico

Fabian Hürzeler’s Brighton are expected to persist with their possession-based 4-2-3-1 setup, focusing on quick interchanges through midfield and exploiting wide areas through their overlapping full-backs. Their biggest challenge remains tightening up defensively in the early stages of matches. If they can control possession and force Leeds onto the back foot, their attacking trio should create plenty of chances.

Daniel Farke’s Leeds will likely set up compactly and look to hit on the counter. Their recent improvement in pressing and transitional play was evident in the win over West Ham, but their defensive structure remains fragile, especially when chasing the game. Maintaining shape and discipline will be crucial if they are to contain Brighton’s creative movement.

Análisis de apuestas

Brighton’s strong home record and dominant head-to-head history make them clear favourites here. With the Seagulls unbeaten in eight home league games and averaging 3.5 total goals per match in that stretch, the Brighton win and over 2.5 goals market looks a particularly enticing option.

Given Leeds’ defensive record away from home and Brighton’s tendency to concede early but recover, both teams to score could also hold value. However, the Seagulls’ attacking power — and Leeds’ inconsistency — suggest the hosts should ultimately prevail comfortably.

Prediction: Brighton 3–1 Leeds

Brighton’s quality in possession and home advantage should see them through against a Leeds side that continues to struggle away from Elland Road. Expect an entertaining game with plenty of chances, but the Seagulls’ superior attacking options should secure all three points.

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