Southampton vs Manchester City Preview

• City to win
• Over 3.5 goals

As the curtain draws near on what has been a historically dismal season for Southampton, their final home fixture of the Premier League campaign brings with it an ominous challenge in the form of reigning champions Manchester City. After their most recent outing ended in a deflating 2-0 defeat away at fellow relegated side Leicester City, the Saints officially secured the unwanted title of the worst team in the Premier League this season – and the misery may not be over just yet.

With just 11 points collected so far in the 2024/25 season, the Saints are in danger of equalling the infamous record set by Derby County in 2007/08 for the lowest points total in Premier League history. They’ve lost a staggering 31 of their 36 league matches (W2, D5), and a defeat here would see them match Derby’s record of 32 defeats in a single campaign – another unwelcome entry in the Premier League annals.

A Daunting Task at St Mary’s

Unfortunately for Southampton, the task ahead couldn’t be more daunting. Manchester City have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 11 of the last 15 Premier League meetings (D3, L1). While Southampton did secure a famous 1-0 home win over Pep Guardiola’s side in July 2020, that result feels like a distant memory given their sharp decline since.

The hosts have shown brief glimmers of resilience during the campaign, but they’ve simply been unable to string together consistent performances, especially at home. Defensively frail and frequently lacking attacking punch, it’s no surprise that they’ve now conceded 81 goals this term – comfortably the most in the division.

Adding to their woes is the continued vulnerability when taking the lead. Southampton have now dropped 28 points from winning positions, the most in the Premier League this season – a glaring stat that sums up their psychological fragility.

City Eyeing a Top-Two Finish

In contrast, Manchester City arrive at St Mary’s still very much in the conversation for a top-two finish, despite a stuttering season by their lofty standards. A run of four consecutive Premier League victories has restored some confidence within Guardiola’s camp, and with second-placed Arsenal only three points ahead, City will feel they can still overhaul the Gunners in the final stretch.

Consistency on the road has been their Achilles’ heel of late, however. Defeats to Arsenal and Nottingham Forest in their last five away league games (W2, D1, L2) have exposed vulnerabilities not often associated with Guardiola’s sides. That said, a professional 2-0 win away at Everton in mid-April did halt the slide and gives them the opportunity to record back-to-back away wins in the league for the first time since August.

Given their imperious record against bottom-half teams and the sheer gulf in quality between the two squads, anything short of a comprehensive victory for City would be considered a major shock.

Key Players and Battles

If Southampton are to have any chance of making this contest competitive, goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale will have to be at his best. The English shot-stopper has never kept a clean sheet in eight previous Premier League appearances against Manchester City, making this yet another huge test of his mettle.

For the visitors, Kevin De Bruyne remains a class apart. The Belgian maestro has been directly involved in 14 Premier League goals against Southampton (4 goals, 10 assists) – more than he has against any other team in the competition.

His creativity and ability to unlock defences will be central to City’s plans, especially if Southampton try to sit deep and frustrate.

Hot Stat

Southampton have conceded multiple goals in 25 of their 36 league matches this season, while City have scored 2+ goals in eight of their last nine league encounters against the Saints.

Prediction: Given the stakes for City and the dire state of Southampton’s campaign, an away victory seems a near certainty. Expect Pep Guardiola’s side to dominate possession, create chances at will, and move one step closer to securing a top-two finish.

Southampton 1-3 Manchester City

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Southampton v Man City, 2024/25 | Premier League