Will Manchester City Secure the Title After Rodri’s Injury?
Manchester City’s vulnerabilities without Rodri are becoming increasingly apparent. A quick glance at their record with him compared to without reveals a stark difference.
The win percentage speaks volumes. With Rodri in the lineup, City boasts a 74% Premier League win rate. However, when he’s absent, that rate plummets to just 59% – a statistic that will likely worry City fans.
This presents a significant dilemma for Pep Guardiola. Who can fill the gap left by Rodri? While it’s easy to claim that no player is irreplaceable, Rodri’s role is fundamental. He isn’t just a defensive anchor; he’s also contributed key goals in crucial moments over the years.
Sure, City can look at the season opener against Chelsea and draw optimism from Mateo Kovacic’s performance in that game, as well as in other games that the Croatian played. However, it all needs taking with a pinch of salt, because the Blues were dreadful in that particular match.
Kovacic is an able replacement, with good passing ability and ball retention, but his numbers are not as good as Rodri’s when comparing their performances last season. He also lacks the Spaniard’s positional awareness, which is crucial in breaking up opposition counter-attacks.
The statistics lean towards a ‘no’ when considering if City will retain their Premier League crown. Although Erling Haaland’s goal-scoring prowess often overshadows other issues, there are real reasons for concern at the Etihad Stadium.
Statistics may not tell the whole story, but they offer valuable insights. In this case, the numbers help us explore the potential outcome for City’s season.
Let’s look back at last season. City clinched their fourth consecutive Premier League title, accumulating 91 points from 38 matches. That’s just under 80% of the total points available if they had won every game.
Currently, City have 14 points from their first six matches of the 2024/25 season. If Rodri is sidelined for the rest of the season and City maintains a 59% win rate, they would win around 19 of their remaining games, securing an additional 57 points.
Factoring in draws and losses without Rodri, the projected numbers suggest City might draw four and lose nine, giving them an estimated total of 75 points. This is well below the typical tally required to defend the Premier League title.
Historically, 75 points has only won the Premier League once, back in the 1996/97 season. Over the past 30 years, the average points total for champions has been around 87.8, and City’s projections without Rodri fall short of that benchmark.
That said, it’s fair to assume that City’s win rate without Rodri could improve, given that the current sample size is just 22 matches – too small to draw firm conclusions.
City have lifted the title in six of the last seven seasons, with an average of 93.6 points needed over the last eight campaigns to secure the trophy.
Meanwhile, Arsenal are on the rise, and a Rodri-less City may be slipping. Sustaining hunger and drive after so much success is challenging, especially as Arsenal’s young squad is eager to claim their first title since 2004.
Furthermore, Liverpool are enjoying a better-than-expected start to the campaign. Whether they have enough in them to last the distance is up for debate, but they are also a factor in the increasing pressures that Guardiola’s team must be experiencing.
Certainly, Manchester City could win the title without Rodri. However, the numbers indicate that this season could be one of their toughest. With the calibre of competition rising, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Premier League trophy wrapped in red ribbons come May.