Newcastle vs Everton Preview

• Draw or Newcastle win
• Over 2.5 goals

A place in next season’s UEFA Champions League is on the line for Newcastle United, who head into their final Premier League game of the season knowing that victory is the clearest path to glory.

Eddie Howe’s side start Matchday 38 level on points (66) with two other top-four contenders, but with goal difference potentially decisive, they know only a win over Everton at St James’ Park will realistically allow them to control their own European destiny.

Magpies Eyeing a Return to Europe’s Top Table

Despite a 1-0 loss to Arsenal last weekend that temporarily derailed momentum, Newcastle still have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. That defeat was their first in ten league outings (seven wins, two draws), a run that has fuelled their top-four surge and displayed the consistency of a squad now widely recognised as one of the division’s most cohesive units.

One factor that could give the Magpies a decisive edge is their exceptional form at St James’ Park, a venue that has become something of a fortress. They’ve won each of their last six home league matches and boast an impressive return of 11 goals in their last three games at home. Supporters will be out in full force on Sunday, and with the added incentive of returning to the Champions League for the first time since the 2002/03 season, the atmosphere is expected to be electric.

Historically, Newcastle have also made a habit of ending their seasons on a high. They’ve won their final league game in eight of the last ten seasons (one draw, one loss), underlining their ability to finish campaigns with purpose. That trend could continue here, especially as they’re unbeaten in their last five final-day home matches (four wins, one draw).

Everton Playing for Pride After Securing 13th

While the stakes couldn’t be higher for the home side, Everton travel to Tyneside knowing that their final league position is already confirmed. Wolves’ midweek defeat means the Toffees are guaranteed to finish 13th, regardless of the result. That makes this effectively a ‘dead rubber’ from a standings point of view, but it’s still a chance to end on a high for a club that has experienced a turbulent but ultimately stabilising campaign.

There’s been no sign of Everton taking their foot off the gas, even with nothing tangible left to fight for. A 3-1 victory over Fulham last weekend marked back-to-back wins for the first time since January, and another three points here would give the Toffees three consecutive top-flight victories to close a season for the first time since the 1988/89 campaign.

Manager David Moyes has laid the foundation for what could be a much-improved 2025/26 season. Since recording their first win under his second spell back in charge on January 19, Everton have collected 28 points – a tally bettered only by Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle themselves in that timeframe. It’s a testament to the work done to rebuild morale and results after a difficult first half of the campaign.

H2H and Venue Trends Favour Newcastle

Newcastle will be encouraged by their recent home dominance in this fixture, with Everton winless at St James’ Park since December 2019 (one draw, three defeats). The reverse fixture earlier this season ended 2-0 in favour of the Magpies, and they’ll be looking to complete their first league double over Everton since the 2011/12 season.

Final-day form does not favour the visitors either. Everton have won just one of their last eight final Premier League matches (one draw, six losses), with a trend of sluggish season finishes a persistent concern. They’ve also kept just one clean sheet in their last ten visits to Newcastle, suggesting that shutting down a confident Magpies attack will be a tall order.

Players to Watch

Newcastle’s standout creative outlet this season has been Jacob Murphy, their right-sided attacker, who has recorded 12 assists – the most by any Newcastle player in a single Premier League campaign since Nolberto Solano’s 15 in 1999/00.

His pace and delivery have proven invaluable, especially in tight home matches.

On the other side, Everton’s attacking midfielder Ilman Ndiaye has enjoyed a purple patch of late, netting twice last week to take his tally to six goals in his last ten Premier League starts.

With his movement and composure in front of goal, he remains a danger for any defence.

Hot Stat

Since recording their first Premier League win under David Moyes on January 19, only four clubs have earned more points than Everton’s 28 – Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle.

Prediction

The occasion, the form, and the stakes all lean heavily in Newcastle’s favour. With Champions League football tantalisingly close, and a strong home record to fall back on, the Magpies should have enough quality and motivation to secure the win they need. Everton may keep things competitive, but a focused and fired-up Newcastle side will be difficult to deny.

Prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Everton

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Newcastle v Everton, 2024/25 | Premier League