Aston Villa vs Tottenham Preview

• Villa to win
• Over 2.5 goals

Aston Villa’s remarkable campaign continues to gather momentum, and with just two fixtures remaining, Unai Emery’s men find themselves in a favourable position to seal a second successive UEFA Champions League qualification. The scheduling could hardly be kinder, as they conclude the season with back-to-back matches against teams preoccupied with upcoming European finals.

This scenario provides a clear window for Aston Villa to capitalise, and their recent form suggests they’re well-equipped to do so. The Midlands club come into the weekend as the only Premier League side to have won eight of their last ten matches (L2), a run that has propelled them firmly into the top-four conversation. Encouragingly, both of those defeats came on the road, with Villa Park remaining an imposing stronghold.

Fortress Villa Park Remains Key

Villa’s 1-0 victory over Fulham in their last home outing was their 17th consecutive league game unbeaten at Villa Park (W10, D7), a run stretching all the way back to August when they lost to Arsenal. That solidity at home has been the foundation of their top-four push, and with so much at stake, they will be confident of extending their streak.

Interestingly, that narrow win over Fulham was only Villa’s third home clean sheet of the season. Rather than defensive resilience, it’s been their firepower that has done the talking. A front-foot approach, aided by a midfield willing to take risks, has seen Villa regularly outscore opponents — a formula that could work well again here against a fragile Spurs side.

Tottenham Facing Down Record-Breaking Season of Defeat

The contrast with their visitors could hardly be starker. Tottenham Hotspur head into the penultimate weekend of the season limping through what has turned into a calamitous domestic campaign. A 4-0 win in this fixture last season remains one of the few bright moments in an otherwise frustrating spell under Ange Postecoglou, whose time in North London appears to be reaching an uncertain end.

Spurs have lost 20 of their 36 Premier League games this season, the most they’ve ever suffered in a single top-flight campaign. Another defeat here would leave them on the brink of equalling the club’s all-time record for most league losses in a season. From once fighting for Europe, Tottenham now sit in 17th, perilously close to finishing as the lowest-ranked surviving club.

Europe Looming, but League Form Flatlining

The silver lining for Spurs is their place in the UEFA Europa League final, which offers the club a chance to end the season with silverware. However, that too could act as a distraction, particularly with player rotation likely to feature heavily in their final two league games. Postecoglou’s side are winless in their last five Premier League away games (D1, L4), and a rotated squad could struggle again here.

Tottenham’s record against the division’s top sides offers further concern. Of their 13 games against clubs currently in the top seven, Spurs have lost 11 (W2), underlining their struggles against teams in strong form. Combine that with their woeful away record and the focus on the Europa League final, and it’s easy to see why expectations are low heading into this trip to Villa Park.

Key Players to Watch

Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)

Arguably Villa’s standout player this season, the striker recently became the club’s all-time leading scorer in the Premier League with his 75th goal, which came in the 1-0 win at Bournemouth.

He’s made a habit of breaking deadlocks, scoring the opener in four of Villa’s last eight league games. With Champions League football in sight, Watkins will look to lead from the front once more and add to his impressive tally.

Mathys Tel (Tottenham)

The young forward has emerged as a bright spark in a largely underwhelming season for Spurs. He opened his account for the club against Villa in the FA Cup and all three of his goals so far have come after half-time.

With Postecoglou expected to rotate ahead of the Europa League final, Tel may get another opportunity to impress in what’s likely to be a heavily altered Spurs lineup.

Tactical Outlook

Expect Villa to dominate possession and look to press high from the start. Their full-backs will likely push forward to support attacking phases, while the midfield will aim to create space for Watkins. Spurs, meanwhile, may sit deeper and look to counter — especially with younger or fringe players potentially getting minutes.

Set-pieces could also be key, particularly for Villa, who have proven clinical in those situations at home this season. Spurs’ vulnerability when defending aerial balls and crosses could be exposed, especially if key defenders are rested.

Hot Stat

Eight of the last nine competitive head-to-head meetings between these two sides have produced over 2.5 total goals — a sign that this fixture tends to deliver drama.

Prediction

Aston Villa 3-1 Tottenham

Villa’s strong home form and attacking depth should be too much for a rotated Spurs side to handle, especially with the visitors’ attention likely focused on the Europa League final.

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Aston Villa v Spurs, 2024/25 | Premier League