Are Nottingham Forest Genuine Contenders for a Top-Four Spot?

As Nottingham Forest prepare to face Brentford sitting in fourth place, we here at EPLNews take a look at how they have transformed under the guidance of Nuno Espirito Santo.

Nottingham Forest have emerged as the Premier League’s surprise package in multiple ways this season.

Nuno Espirito Santo, who took the reins exactly one year ago, has masterminded one of the fastest ascents from relegation battlers to Champions League contenders since Leicester City’s fairytale rise eight years ago.

Nothing highlights the magnitude of this turnaround more than their winning record. In both the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, Forest concluded their campaigns with just nine Premier League victories. This season, they have already racked up eight wins.

With 28 points from 16 matches, this is their best return at this stage of a top-flight season since 1994/95, when they also had 28 points and ultimately finished third.

Achieving third place again would require the formidable task of finishing above one of Liverpool, Arsenal, or Chelsea. But what about securing fourth? That might not be as far-fetched as it seems, given that Forest’s current league standing isn’t the only remarkable aspect of their campaign.

Nuno’s Retro Tactics: The Key to Forest’s Success

Under Nuno, Forest’s tactics represent a stark contrast to the prevailing trends in modern football. This divergence has proven to be their greatest asset, confounding many of their so-called progressive opponents.

In the Premier League, pressing aggressively, building from the back, and prioritising possession have become the hallmarks of success. Forest, however, have adopted an entirely different approach.

Nuno’s team ranks 19th for average possession (40.9%), 20th for pass completion (75.8%), and 20th for Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) at 15.8, which measures pressing intensity.

While there are nuances in Forest’s passing game and off-the-ball organisation, they can broadly be characterised as a team that sits deep, focuses on defensive solidity, and strikes on the counter. Essentially, they are the antithesis of the high-pressing, possession-heavy styles that dominate the league.

By defending deep and allowing opponents to carry the ball into their territory, Forest force their adversaries into aimless possession. The stats back this up: they have caught the fewest offsides (17) and allowed the fewest through-balls (18) in the league.

In possession, Forest’s preference for long balls and swift counter-attacks neutralises their opponents’ high pressing strategies. A staggering 76.9% of passes made by the Forest goalkeeper are launched long, far ahead of Everton in second place with 54.7%.

This unconventional approach undermines the typical tactics of high pressing, purposeful possession, and fast transitions in Forest’s half. In many ways, their style is reminiscent of the defensive solidity and counter-attacking prowess associated with Jose Mourinho’s best teams.

Murillo and Milenkovic: The Backbone of Forest’s Defence

While Nuno’s tactical philosophy is central to Forest’s success, it requires high-calibre players to execute effectively. Key to this is the centre-back partnership of Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic.

Since joining from Fiorentina in the summer, Milenkovic has featured in every Premier League match alongside Murillo, barring the 1-1 draw against Bournemouth on the opening weekend. Remarkably, this was the only Premier League game this season in which Matz Sels, Murillo, Milenkovic, and Ola Aina did not all start together.

This defensive consistency has fostered strong partnerships and a cohesive unit that prioritises risk minimisation. Forest have made the fewest errors leading to shots (5) in the league, while winning 52.8% of their ground duels – the highest in the division. They also boast the third-best Expected Goals Against (xGA) at 17.3, trailing only Liverpool and Arsenal.

The partnership of Murillo and Milenkovic is particularly noteworthy. Murillo’s proactive defending complements Milenkovic’s towering presence and ability to sweep up danger, creating a “yin and yang” balance that has stabilised Forest’s backline.

Chris Wood: The Focus Point of Forest’s Attack

While Forest’s midfield has gained creativity through the introduction of Elliot Anderson (five assists), their attack continues to rely heavily on wide players Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi creating space and delivering crosses for Chris Wood.

Wood recently became Forest’s record Premier League scorer, netting his 25th top-flight goal for the club. Since Nuno’s arrival, Wood has scored 21 Premier League goals, a tally bettered only by Cole Palmer (23) and Erling Haaland (26) during the same period.

Forest have scored six headed goals this season, the joint-highest in the league, and they lead in shots from headers (47). Additionally, they’ve attempted 333 crosses, the third-highest in the division. Unsurprisingly, many of these opportunities arise from set-pieces, which are a cornerstone of Forest’s attacking strategy.

The team has taken the second-most shots from set-pieces in the Premier League (67), and their six goals from such situations are surpassed only by Arsenal’s eight. In fact, Arsenal are the only team with a higher percentage of their total xG coming from set-pieces (33.26%) than Forest’s 32.78%.

However, this reliance on set-pieces and crosses could also indicate an area for improvement.

Room for Improvement in Attack

Despite their defensive solidity, Forest’s attacking output leaves room for growth. They have scored just 21 goals, the fifth-lowest in the league, and their xG of 19.7 is only marginally better than the bottom five teams.

This drop in offensive productivity is partly due to a regression in counter-attacking efficiency. Their “fast breaks” and “direct attacks” have declined significantly compared to last season.

Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, and Morgan Gibbs-White have collectively contributed 10 goal involvements in the Premier League so far, a stark contrast to the 38 they amassed by this stage in the 2023/24 season. Greater incisiveness from this trio could be crucial for Forest’s long-term ambitions.

Moreover, their goal difference of +2 is notably low. Over the last five seasons, the average goal difference of the team finishing fourth is +23.2. This discrepancy highlights the fine margins on which Forest’s success is currently built.

Conclusion: Forest’s Unique Formula

Nottingham Forest’s rise to fourth place is a testament to their ability to defy conventional wisdom in the Premier League. By embracing a tactical philosophy that prioritises defensive stability and disrupts opponents’ rhythm, they have carved out a unique identity under Nuno Espirito Santo.

While there are areas that require improvement, particularly in attack, Forest’s success lies in their willingness to go against the grain. Their throwback approach, blending old-school defensive tactics with modern athleticism, has made them one of the most intriguing teams to watch this season.

Forget the standard blueprint for success. Nottingham Forest are rewriting the rules, and a top-four finish – and Champions League football – remains within their grasp.