Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal Preview

• Draw or Arsenal win
• Both teams to score

The Champions League returns to San Mamés for the first time in over a decade, as Athletic Club kick off their group stage campaign against Premier League giants Arsenal. Athletic earned their seat at Europe’s top table thanks to a fourth-place finish in La Liga last season, marking their first Champions League main draw appearance since 2014/15. That edition ended in disappointment at the group stage, but this time around there is renewed optimism following a strong Europa League run last term which ended in the semi-finals.

The Basques made their home ground a fortress in that journey, winning six of their seven European fixtures in Bilbao (L1). Their only setback came against English opposition in the form of Manchester United, a reminder of how difficult this type of fixture can be. Domestically, Ernesto Valverde’s side have also started well, winning three of their first four La Liga matches before the international break. However, momentum stalled in their last outing as they slipped to a 1-0 defeat at Alavés, ending their perfect start and serving as a reality check ahead of this continental clash.

Arsenal, meanwhile, arrive in Spain on a wave of confidence after dispatching Nottingham Forest 3-0 at the Emirates. The Gunners have started the new Premier League season with intent, although manager Mikel Arteta’s plans have been hampered by a growing injury list. The sight of captain Martin Ødegaard limping off against Forest has added to his headaches, joining key names already in the treatment room. Despite those setbacks, Arsenal remain formidable in Europe; only Real Madrid have earned more points in the group stage across the last two UCL campaigns.

Away from home, Arsenal have proven they can get the job done too, winning four of their last five Champions League away games. Yet there is a caveat – they conceded in all five of those outings, suggesting defensive concentration on the road is still a work in progress.

Head-to-Head History

This is the first-ever competitive meeting between Athletic Club and Arsenal. The Basques rarely face English opponents in Europe, but they will draw confidence from their overall strong home record. Arsenal, however, have developed a knack for handling Spanish sides effectively in recent years, winning each of their last five encounters against La Liga opposition, including three victories last season.

Hot Stats and Streaks

• All three of Athletic’s home games this season have been settled by a one-goal margin (W2, L1).
• Six of Athletic’s last seven European matches in Bilbao saw a goal before half-time.
• None of Arsenal’s four games this season in all competitions have seen both teams score.
• Arsenal are unbeaten on matchday one in each of their last eight European campaigns.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

For Athletic, the spotlight falls on Iñaki Williams, who could make history as the first non-Spanish player to feature for the club in the Champions League. The forward is vital to their attacking threat, having scored the opening goal in three of his four European scoring appearances last season.

His pace and direct running will test an Arsenal defence that has shown vulnerabilities away from home.

Arsenal will look to Martín Zubimendi, who joined from Real Sociedad in the summer and scored twice against Forest at the weekend.

The midfielder has experience facing Athletic but not fond memories, having lost all four of his previous personal away fixtures in Bilbao. Nevertheless, his ability to control possession and dictate tempo could prove vital.

In terms of availability, Athletic were without Nico Williams in their last La Liga outing and face a nervous wait on his fitness. Arsenal’s injury list is more extensive, with Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Kai Havertz among those missing from their last league match, alongside Ødegaard.

Tactical Analysis

Valverde’s Athletic are a team built on discipline and compact structure, but they also thrive in transition thanks to their wide players. Expect them to look for early balls into space for Iñaki Williams, while their aggressive pressing in midfield will attempt to unsettle Arsenal’s rhythm.

Arsenal under Arteta are possession-heavy and tactically flexible, but injuries could force some reshuffling. Without their captain Ødegaard, much of the creative burden could fall on Zubimendi and other midfielders. Defensively, Arsenal will need to be cautious of Athletic’s aerial threat from set pieces, a traditional strength of the Basques.

Betting Analysis

Given Athletic’s impressive home record in Europe and Arsenal’s defensive frailties on the road, this fixture has the makings of a close battle. While Arsenal have the pedigree and quality to edge it, Athletic’s strength at San Mamés suggests that a draw may be the value bet. A low-scoring stalemate with both teams finding the net is a realistic outcome.

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Arsenal

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Athletic Club vs Arsenal | UEFA Champions League 2025/26