Esperance Tunis vs Chelsea Preview

• Chelsea to win
• Over 1.5 goals for Chelsea

Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia sets the stage for a decisive final Group D fixture at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, where Espérance de Tunis face Chelsea with a place in the last 16 on the line. With both sides having taken three points from their first two games, this encounter is a classic winner-takes-all affair, though Chelsea can progress with a draw, while only victory will be enough for the Tunisian side.

Match News and Current Form

Espérance de Tunis come into this clash with their hopes of progression hanging in the balance, but momentum is on their side after a gritty 1-0 win over Los Angeles FC on matchday two. That result marked just their second-ever victory in Club World Cup history and demonstrated the grit needed to survive at this level. Espérance rode their luck at times, surviving a late penalty scare in the 101st minute, but goalkeeper Bechir Ben Saïd’s heroics ensured all three points were secured.

That victory also extended Espérance’s impressive overall form to ten wins from their last 13 matches in all competitions, with only one defeat in that time. While that’s an encouraging statistic, the level of opposition will rise steeply in this fixture. The four-time African champions must find another level if they are to overcome the odds and defeat one of England’s elite. With a win the only result that will see them qualify, expect the Tunisians to throw everything forward when needed.

Chelsea, on the other hand, began their Club World Cup campaign in solid fashion with a 2-0 victory over LAFC but were brought crashing down to earth with a 3-1 defeat against Flamengo. Despite taking the lead in that game, the Blues were undone by a quick-fire Brazilian double and later saw their task made tougher after a red card to striker Nicolas Jackson. That loss ended a four-game winning streak in all competitions and marked their first defeat at the Club World Cup since their 2012 final loss to Corinthians.

It also highlighted some worrying defensive frailties, as Chelsea conceded an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.6 – their highest since a chaotic 4-3 win over Tottenham in the Premier League. Defensive structure and discipline will be a key focus for Enzo Maresca’s side ahead of this fixture, especially considering they only require a draw to progress to the knockout phase.

Head-to-Head History

This is the first-ever meeting between Espérance and Chelsea. It also marks the first time either side has played a competitive match against a club from the other’s continent. Given the rarity of intercontinental clashes between African and European clubs at this level, both teams will be eager to make a statement in what is a high-stakes encounter.

Tactical Overview and Key Players

Espérance de Tunis have earned their reputation as a resilient and tactically sound outfit, capable of frustrating technically superior opposition with organised defensive lines and patient buildup play. Their recent matches have been low-scoring affairs, with just two of their last 14 games featuring goals at both ends. In attack, they tend to strike late, as each of their last four goals arrived after the 65th minute.

Their standout performer has been goalkeeper Bechir Ben Saïd, who was the hero in the win over LAFC. His penalty save in injury time preserved all three points and made him the first Espérance keeper to keep a clean sheet at the Club World Cup. His confidence will be vital as he prepares to face one of Europe’s most potent attacks.

Chelsea’s attacking game plan has been more fluid and possession-driven under Maresca, with quick transitions and width key to unlocking compact defences. Despite losing their rhythm against Flamengo, Chelsea’s recent form has largely been strong, and their ability to bounce back from adversity will be tested here. With Jackson suspended following his red card, the spotlight falls on others in the attacking line-up to deliver.

Pedro Neto has emerged as a reliable attacking outlet, opening the scoring in both of Chelsea’s Club World Cup matches so far.

His pace and movement between the lines could prove decisive against an Espérance backline that prefers to sit deep and soak up pressure. Chelsea will also be boosted by the return of several key midfielders, providing a strong foundation to control the game.

Hot Stats and Trends

• Espérance have kept clean sheets in seven of their last ten victories.
• The Tunisian side have scored all of their last four goals after the 65th minute.
• Chelsea have not lost consecutive matches in any competition since February.
• Four of Chelsea’s last five wins came with clean sheets.
• Chelsea have scored seven of their last eight goals in the second half.

Betting Analysis

Chelsea come into the game as heavy favourites, but with only one game in their last seven producing over 2.5 goals, a rout might be unlikely. Espérance, while limited in attacking output, have shown enough defensive resilience to suggest this won’t be a walkover for the English side.

Backing Chelsea to win with under 2.5 total goals could offer good value, especially with their recent preference for managing tight, tactical games.

Prediction

Chelsea are likely to bounce back from their Flamengo disappointment with a more controlled performance, especially given the stakes. Espérance will battle bravely, but the Blues’ quality should ultimately prevail.

Predicted score: Chelsea 2-0 Espérance de Tunis

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https://www.fifa.com/en/match-centre/match/10005/289175/289176/400019171