Southampton vs Arsenal Preview

• Arsenal to win
• Over 1.5 goals for Arsenal

It’s been a season to forget for Southampton, and unfortunately for their fans, the curtain will fall at St Mary’s on Sunday with the club’s worst-ever Premier League campaign already confirmed. Relegation was sealed weeks ago, but this final-day encounter against Arsenal offers one last chance to salvage some dignity before dropping into the Championship for 2025/26. However, even that may be a tall order considering the Saints are now staring at the wrong kind of history.

Rooted to the foot of the table, Southampton will finish bottom regardless of this result, and another defeat would see them become the first team in Premier League history to lose 30 games in a single campaign. Just one point above Derby County’s infamous 11-point haul in 2007/08, the threat of being remembered as statistically one of the worst teams ever to grace the division looms large.

This won’t be a new position for many of the players or the fans, as Southampton have been entrenched in the bottom three for virtually the entire season. However, recent form has offered no real sense of hope. They haven’t won a home league game since November 2024, and in the time since have drawn two and lost eleven at St Mary’s, leaking goals at an alarming rate.

Particularly alarming for the home faithful is Southampton’s recent record against London opposition. Since their last home league win, they’ve hosted six teams from the capital, conceding a whopping 19 goals and managing to avoid defeat only once (D1, L5). That defensive fragility, combined with their ongoing struggles in front of goal, makes this a daunting finale against one of the league’s most formidable outfits.

Arsenal’s Final Push

For Arsenal, the stakes are lower than they would have hoped for at this stage of the season. A frustrating run of dropped points has seen the Gunners fall short in the title race for the third successive year, with second place virtually guaranteed ahead of the final round of fixtures. Still, Mikel Arteta’s side will aim to end the season on a high and maintain their strong record on the final day of a Premier League campaign.

Few clubs close out a season better than Arsenal. The North Londoners are unbeaten in their last 19 final-day league matches (W17, D2) and have won each of the last 13. In fact, they hold the record for the most Premier League wins on the final day of the season with 23. That’s an ominous stat for a Southampton side that has struggled to offer much resistance to top-half sides this term.

The Gunners also boast a dominant head-to-head record against Southampton in the Premier League, winning 26 of the 49 previous encounters (D15, L8). With their attacking options returning to full strength and the defence remaining among the league’s most reliable, they’ll be confident of completing the double over the Saints, having already beaten them 3-0 at the Emirates earlier this season.

Focus on Performances

While the title is out of reach and second place looks certain, Arteta will use this match as an opportunity to maintain focus and rhythm. With no silverware to show for their efforts this season, the emphasis now shifts to finishing strong and preparing mentally for a summer of rebuilding and reflection.

Southampton, meanwhile, have little but pride on the line. However, it’s a chance for some players to put themselves in the shop window or prove their worth for next season’s Championship campaign. Manager Simon Rusk, who’s overseen the latter stages of this dismal campaign, will also be hoping to avoid finishing with a home loss, especially against such high-quality opposition.

Key Battle

A recurring issue for Southampton in the final months of the season has been their lack of goals. The Saints haven’t found the net in regulation time since a consolation strike against Fulham earlier this month, leaving them goalless in 346 minutes of standard play. Defender Jack Stephens, who scored their last meaningful goal, will now be tasked with stopping Arsenal’s dynamic attack.

He’ll likely be up against Kai Havertz, who could make history of his own by helping Arsenal avoid completing a league season without a single player hitting double digits in goals — something that hasn’t happened at the club for over a century.

With nine goals to his name in the league, the German forward will be eager to hit that milestone and wrap up his season on a personal high.

Hot Stat

Southampton’s problems run deeper than simply failing to win games. Even when they’ve taken the lead, they’ve consistently squandered those advantages, failing to win nine of their 11 league games when scoring first (W2, D2, L7). That kind of fragility is a hallmark of teams that finish bottom, and it’s a habit that will need serious addressing if they’re to challenge for promotion next season.

Prediction

This is likely to be a comfortable afternoon for Arsenal, who will want to close the season in emphatic fashion. With Saints already relegated and severely lacking in both form and morale, another defeat appears inevitable. Arsenal should be too strong in every department and are backed to coast to a routine win.

Prediction: Southampton 0-3 Arsenal

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Southampton v Arsenal, 2024/25 | Premier League