Manchester City vs Bournemouth Preview

• City to win
• Both teams to score

Manchester City saw their pursuit of silverware officially come to an end on Saturday, as they fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup final. The loss not only denied Pep Guardiola’s side a trophy this season but also marked the first time City have gone without silverware since the 2016/17 campaign—Guardiola’s debut season at the Etihad.

To compound their disappointment, City enter the final week of the Premier League campaign in sixth place and at real risk of missing out on UEFA Champions League football. A place in the top five is likely to guarantee a seat at Europe’s top table next term, and as things stand, they are just outside the cut. However, the equation is simple: avoid defeat against Bournemouth and they’ll climb back into the top five ahead of the final round of fixtures.

City can take comfort in their historically strong finishes at home. They’ve won their final Premier League home match in ten of the last 11 seasons, drawing the other. Furthermore, the reigning champions have strung together four consecutive home league wins ahead of this fixture and are unbeaten at the Etihad in the league since their 2-1 loss to Arsenal back in February.

Bournemouth Still Eyeing a Historic Finish

Bournemouth head to the Etihad with European dreams still technically alive, but their hopes now hang by a thread following Crystal Palace’s shock FA Cup triumph. That result complicates the qualifying pathway for eighth place to be good enough for UEFA Conference League qualification. For the Cherries to reach Europe, not only must they finish eighth, but they must also rely on Chelsea winning the Conference League final and finishing outside the top five—a scenario that’s increasingly unlikely.

Nonetheless, Andoni Iraola’s side have exceeded expectations this season and sit in a respectable position battling alongside Brentford and Brighton for a top-eight finish. A positive result at the Etihad would go a long way in sealing a club-best Premier League points total and building momentum for what could still be a historic campaign.

They also boast an impressive away record of late, losing just once in their last 12 league games on the road (six wins, five draws). However, their overall record against Manchester City is sobering. Bournemouth have only managed one win in 21 league meetings (two draws, 18 defeats), with their only success coming in the reverse fixture this season when they shocked the reigning champions 2-1 on the South Coast.

City’s Etihad Stronghold vs Bournemouth’s Late Surge

Guardiola’s men have been imperious at the Etihad, and they tend to dominate opponents like Bournemouth, especially on home turf. City have won all seven Premier League home head-to-heads against the Cherries, often by convincing margins, and have scored 24 goals across those encounters while conceding just five.

City’s ability to finish strong is another ominous sign for Bournemouth. They often raise their levels at this stage of the campaign, and the thought of failing to secure Champions League football could be the motivation they need to produce one last big performance in front of their fans.

Bournemouth, for their part, cannot afford to play the occasion. Their recent away form is built on defensive solidity and clinical finishing late in matches. The Cherries have scored a Premier League-high 12 goals after the 75th minute in away games this season—a statistic that could keep City alert until the final whistle.

Players to Watch

This will be a poignant evening for Manchester City fans, as Kevin De Bruyne is set to make his final home appearance after a decade of service. The Belgian playmaker has amassed over a dozen major honours at the club and remains as influential as ever.

He’s been directly involved in seven goals in nine Premier League starts against Bournemouth, scoring three and assisting four. Expect a big send-off and another masterclass in midfield control.

Bournemouth will look to Evanilson to provide a spark up front. The Brazilian forward has become one of the Premier League’s most potent strikers on the road, scoring six goals in his last nine away starts, including five in his last five.

His pace and ability to exploit defensive gaps could be Bournemouth’s best weapon against a City side likely to dominate possession.

Prediction

Manchester City rarely falter in their final home game of the season, and while Bournemouth will provide a tough test, Guardiola’s side should be fired up to end their home campaign on a high. The Cherries will look to frustrate and strike late, but the quality in City’s ranks—particularly with De Bruyne playing his final Etihad match—may prove too much.

Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth

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Man City v Bournemouth, 2024/25 | Premier League