Arsenal vs Newcastle Preview
- Draw or Arsenal win
- Over 2.5 goals
As the Premier League season nears its conclusion, Arsenal find themselves at risk of letting a once-promising campaign end on a sour note. After sitting comfortably in second place earlier this year, the Gunners have stumbled in the final stretch, managing just one win in their last six league matches (D4, L1). That poor run of form has opened the door for rivals to close the gap, and with just two rounds remaining, Mikel Arteta’s side must arrest their slide if they want to secure a top-five finish and a guaranteed return to the UEFA Champions League.
While Arsenal remain in the driver’s seat in terms of qualification, their recent form is cause for concern. A 1-1 draw with Liverpool last weekend was their fourth draw in six games, and the lack of cutting edge in front of goal continues to hinder them. They’ll now face a stern test in the form of an in-form Newcastle side, a team that’s already proven to be something of a nemesis this season.
Recent Struggles vs a Familiar Foe
Despite enjoying a dominant historical home record against Newcastle – just one defeat in their last 20 home Premier League H2Hs (W17, D2), and 11 wins in the last 12 – Arsenal have found the Magpies to be a thorn in their side this season. Across all competitions, Newcastle have beaten Arsenal three times without conceding a goal. That includes a league fixture at St. James’ Park and both legs of a Carabao Cup semi-final tie.
No team has ever managed to beat Arsenal four times in a single campaign, and with the Gunners only losing their final home league game in one of the past 27 seasons (W22, D4), they will hope to end that recent poor head-to-head run and all but confirm their top-five status with at least a point.
Defensively, Arsenal have remained solid at the Emirates, where they’ve kept 11 clean sheets in the league this season, but their struggles in front of goal – failing to score in four of their last six games in all competitions – are worrying. Arteta will be hoping for a spark from his forward line, particularly from midfield runners who’ve often chipped in when the strikers have failed to deliver.
Newcastle’s Strong Finish to the Season
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have picked the perfect time to hit form. The Magpies have claimed 22 points across the last ten Premier League rounds, a figure bettered only by Aston Villa (24) during that period. Their most recent success came in the form of a controlled 2-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, which solidified their place in the top five. Data experts at Opta now give them a 96% chance of finishing there come season’s end.
This resurgence is all the more impressive given their mid-season slump, which saw injuries and fixture congestion take a toll. With most key players now fit and firing, Newcastle will make the trip to London in high spirits, eyeing what would be a memorable campaign double over Arsenal.
However, their away form remains patchy. The Magpies have won just two of their last six league games on the road (D1, L3), and the Emirates Stadium is never an easy venue. Encouragingly, they’ve tended to rise to the occasion in the final away fixture of the season, going unbeaten in their last six such games (W4, D2). That includes strong results in the capital – four of those games came against London clubs, with three wins and one draw.
Key Players to Watch
William Saliba will be hoping to mark a personal milestone with a positive result. The French centre-back is set to make his 100th Premier League appearance for Arsenal and could match club legends Lauren and Sol Campbell with 68 wins in their first century of games.
Saliba has been a key figure in Arsenal’s solid defensive performances this season and will be tasked with keeping Newcastle’s dynamic attack at bay.
For Newcastle, Jacob Murphy has emerged as one of their most consistent creative outlets. He’s assisted 12 goals in the Premier League this season – twice as many as any of his teammates – and has previously played a role in unlocking Arsenal’s defence.
Having also been involved in both opening goals in the Carabao Cup semi-final against the Gunners (one goal, one assist), he could again be a pivotal figure.
Hot Stat
Arsenal have led at half-time in 13 of their 18 home league matches this season – an encouraging omen if they want to take control of this match early.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle
Despite their recent stumbles, Arsenal’s excellent home form and historical dominance over Newcastle at the Emirates suggest they may just have enough to edge what could be a tight contest. Newcastle’s momentum could make it an open affair, but the Gunners should find the motivation to see this one through, particularly with Champions League qualification on the line.
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Arsenal v Newcastle, 2024/25 | Premier League