Premier League Race for Europe: How Are Things Standing Now?

As the 2024/25 Premier League campaign nears its climax, the competition for UEFA Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League qualification is heating up. With only a handful of matches left, the race for European places during The Run In is thrilling and unpredictable.

Here’s an in-depth look at the current landscape, qualification scenarios, and the fixtures that could shape the outcome.

Guaranteed European Spots and the Champions League Chase

The top seven clubs in the Premier League are guaranteed European football next season, but with just five Champions League places available, the pressure is immense. The race is particularly intense, with only four points separating the five sides sitting third through to seventh.

Another mini-battle is brewing slightly lower down the table. Clubs in eighth to 11th are separated by a mere four points, and this could be critical—eighth place might prove good enough for a European berth depending on how other competitions conclude.

UEFA Champions League Qualification Explained

For the 2025/26 season, the top five finishers in the Premier League will qualify for the UEFA Champions League. This expansion is thanks to the excellent performances of English clubs across all UEFA competitions this season. England has secured one of the top two places in UEFA’s association club coefficient rankings, which grants a “European Performance Spot” (EPS).

Consequently, six English clubs will feature in next season’s Champions League: the top five in the league and the winner of the UEFA Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.

While Liverpool have sealed a top-five finish, the remaining four places are up for grabs. No fewer than six teams are jostling for those valuable spots.

Arsenal Under Pressure

Arsenal, currently in second, appeared to be in pole position, but a poor run—just one win in six matches—has made their status less secure. They now require two more points to mathematically confirm a top-five finish. However, their superior goal difference means that even one more point could suffice.

The Gunners recently played out a 2-2 draw away at Liverpool and next face Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, 18 May. A defeat would see Newcastle leapfrog Arsenal in the standings.

Manchester City’s Stumble

Manchester City had found some momentum with four consecutive victories but were unexpectedly held to a goalless draw by relegation-threatened Southampton on Saturday. This slip-up has left them susceptible to overtaking by rivals.

Newcastle took full advantage by beating a 10-man Chelsea 1-0 in Sunday’s early fixture, leapfrogging City into third.

Forest and Villa in Contention

Nottingham Forest missed a chance to climb to fifth with a win over Leicester City. Despite leading 2-1, they were pegged back to a 2-2 draw. Nuno Espírito Santo’s men have now managed just one win in their last six games and currently occupy seventh place.

Forest’s next match is away at West Ham United, followed by a potential final-day showdown with Chelsea that could decide a top-five finish.

Aston Villa remain in sixth, level on 63 points with Chelsea, following an impressive run of form—six wins from their last seven matches. Their latest success was a crucial 1-0 victory at AFC Bournemouth, a side also chasing European qualification.

Villa must maintain their momentum with tough fixtures against Europa League finalists Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur to round off their campaign.

UEFA Europa League: Who Will Claim the Two Spots?

Two places in the UEFA Europa League are allocated to English teams. Typically, the fifth-placed Premier League side receives one spot. However, due to England’s additional Champions League berth, this season the Europa League place will go to the team finishing sixth.

The second Europa League spot will be awarded to the winners of the FA Cup final, where Manchester City take on Crystal Palace at Wembley Stadium on 17 May.

UEFA Conference League: Who Takes the Final European Place?

The winners of the EFL Cup qualify for the UEFA Conference League. This year, Newcastle United earned a place in Europe by lifting the EFL Cup, ending a 56-year wait for silverware in the process.

Alternative Routes to European Qualification

While domestic league standings are the most straightforward route into Europe, clubs can also qualify through continental triumphs.

• UEFA Champions League winners secure automatic entry into the following season’s competition.
• UEFA Europa League winners also qualify for the Champions League.
• UEFA Conference League champions gain a place in next season’s Europa League.

Domestic Cup Winners’ Impact

Here’s where things become more complicated. If a team wins the FA Cup but also qualifies for the Champions League or Europa League via their Premier League position—or by winning one of the European tournaments—their cup-won Europa League slot is passed to the next-highest team in the league not already qualified for UEFA competitions.

The same logic applies to the EFL Cup winners. Should they qualify for Europe through other means, their UEFA Conference League slot will be handed down the Premier League table to the next eligible side.

Newcastle, having won the EFL Cup, hope to finish high enough in the league to upgrade their European ticket from the Conference League to either the Europa League or Champions League. The outcome of their final league fixtures could be pivotal in determining this.

The FA Cup’s Potential Influence

Both finalists in the FA Cup—Manchester City and Crystal Palace—could affect the allocation of European places.

If Man City win the FA Cup and also qualify for the Champions League via their league position, the Europa League slot that comes with the domestic cup triumph would be passed down to the highest-placed league side not already qualified.

Should Crystal Palace emerge victorious at Wembley, they would secure the Europa League place directly, regardless of their league finish.

Can the Eighth-Place Team Qualify?

Yes, an eighth-place finish could earn European qualification under certain scenarios.

If Manchester City win the FA Cup and also finish high enough in the league to qualify for Europe, and Newcastle also qualify through their league finish despite having already secured Conference League football via the EFL Cup, the European slots from the domestic trophies would cascade down the table.

This would open the door for the eighth-placed club to enter continental competition.

As a result, clubs like Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Fulham all retain European aspirations heading into the season’s conclusion.

Fixtures to Watch

Only one direct head-to-head remains among these four clubs—Fulham face Brentford in a west London derby on Saturday, 18 May. The outcome of that match could be decisive in determining who secures a potential eighth-place finish and the chance to represent England in Europe.