Southampton vs Fulham Preview

• Draw or Fulham win
• Over 2.5 goals

Already condemned to relegation in record time, Southampton now turn their attention to avoiding an even more humbling feat: finishing the 2023/24 Premier League season with the lowest points tally in the competition’s history.

A dramatic late equaliser in their 1-1 draw with West Ham last weekend ensured they matched Derby County’s infamous 11-point haul from 2007/08, and anything from their clash with Fulham would at least spare them that shame.

St Mary’s Struggles Mounting for Southampton

Simon Rusk’s side have not won at home in the league since beating Bournemouth 2-1 back in early November. Since then, St Mary’s has become a graveyard for Saints’ hopes, with a succession of limp performances. They could become just the fifth side in Premier League history to lose 14 or more home matches in a single season—a stat that underlines the scale of their woes on the south coast.

But there’s a glimmer of historical hope when it comes to facing Fulham at home. The Saints have an outstanding record in this fixture at St Mary’s, having suffered defeat just once across their last 22 such encounters (W15, D6). The only blemish in that remarkable run came last season in a 2-0 loss in May 2023. A fixture that has long favoured Southampton might just be the opportunity they need to finally break the Derby points curse.

Fulham Losing Steam at the Wrong Time

While Southampton battle ignominy, Fulham are nursing wounds of their own. Hopes of securing a European place were still alive in early April after an eye-catching 3-2 win over Liverpool, but those dreams are quickly fading following back-to-back defeats. The latest came in heart-breaking fashion at Stamford Bridge last weekend, where Marco Silva’s side were downed by a 91st-minute winner from Chelsea in a 2-1 defeat.

This mini slump has come at the worst possible moment. The Cottagers have now lost three consecutive Premier League away games by a one-goal margin, showing a fragility late in matches that has undermined otherwise competent performances. With little to play for beyond pride and finishing in the top half, Silva will be demanding a strong reaction from his side—particularly in front of goal.

Goalless in the Reverse and Dearth of Goals on the Road

Back in December, Fulham were one of just two teams all season to fail to score against Southampton in a league game. That 0-0 draw raised eyebrows at the time, but now serves as an alarming reminder that the Saints, even in this historically poor campaign, can still frustrate opponents on their day.

Adding to the intrigue is Fulham’s tendency to fall just short away from home. The Cottagers haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road since beating Manchester United 2-1 in February, and their attacking output away from Craven Cottage has often lacked a clinical edge. Even against a defence as porous as Southampton’s, Fulham can’t take anything for granted.

Players to Watch

Lesley Ugochukwu (Southampton)

The teenage midfielder scored his first goal for Southampton last weekend, and notably, both of his career goals to date have come after the 80th minute.

He could be a key late threat again, especially with Fulham prone to conceding in the closing stages.

Alex Iwobi (Fulham)

The Nigerian international is enjoying the most productive season of his Premier League career, scoring his ninth league goal in the loss to Chelsea.

With a knack for arriving in key moments, Iwobi remains Fulham’s most likely source of creativity and goals.

Key Tactical Battle

The midfield battle could prove decisive in a game likely to be tight. Southampton’s energetic pairing of Ugochukwu and Carlos Alcaraz will look to press high and unsettle Fulham’s more possession-based approach. João Palhinha’s ability to break up play for the visitors may be key to ensuring Fulham aren’t caught on the counter.

Hot Stat

Fourteen of Fulham’s last 16 Premier League matches have seen at least one side score two or more goals. That statistic suggests that even with Southampton’s misfiring attack, goals should be on the menu—particularly if the game opens up after the hour mark.

Prediction: A Point to Prove on Both Sides

While the stakes are lower than in many other Premier League games this weekend, this fixture carries plenty of narrative weight. Southampton are fighting to avoid becoming statistically the worst side in top-flight history, while Fulham are trying to restore pride after a run of narrow defeats.

Despite their issues, Fulham remain the better side and should have enough to edge it—though the Saints will be desperate to put on a performance in front of their own fans.

Prediction: Southampton 1-2 Fulham

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Southampton v Fulham, 2024/25 | Premier League