Real Madrid vs Arsenal Preview
- Real to win
- Over 2.5 goals
European champions Real Madrid face a mountain to climb as they host Arsenal in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final. A stunning 3-0 defeat at the Emirates last week has left the Spanish giants with a major uphill task to preserve their hopes of retaining their crown, as Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal delivered one of their finest performances in Europe to take a commanding lead into the Santiago Bernabéu.
While Madrid steadied the ship with a narrow 1-0 win over Alavés in La Liga at the weekend, the result came with an asterisk after star forward Kylian Mbappé received a first-half red card. Fortunately for Los Blancos, his suspension doesn’t carry into European competition, meaning the Frenchman will be available to feature in what promises to be one of the most significant matches of the season.
Despite their long and storied history in Europe, Madrid will know they are up against it. They have overturned a first-leg away defeat 25 times in UEFA competition, including on each of the last three occasions, but never before have they done so after losing by a three-goal margin. To compound the challenge, their last three UCL eliminations have all come against English opposition, a trend they will be desperate to buck in front of their home supporters.
Carlo Ancelotti’s men are renowned for producing dramatic European comebacks, especially on home soil. But the size of the task this time cannot be overstated. Not since the 1985/86 season have Madrid come back from a 3-0 first-leg defeat in UEFA competition, and they face an Arsenal side that is both in strong form and carrying belief that they can go all the way.
The Gunners followed their remarkable first-leg performance with a 1-1 draw against Brentford in the Premier League. Though slightly disappointing, it extended their unbeaten run in all competitions to nine matches (W4, D5). While Mikel Arteta may have been criticised for resting players at the weekend, it’s clear that the club’s primary focus is now on making their first UCL semi-final appearance since 2008/09.
History also favours the North Londoners when it comes to finishing the job in Europe. Arsenal have won 18 of their 20 UEFA ties after winning the home leg, with both exceptions coming at the hands of La Liga clubs — Valencia in 2000/01 and Barcelona in 2010/11. Crucially, neither of those instances saw them take a lead of three or more goals into the return fixture. And of course, Arsenal fans will remember fondly their only previous visit to the Bernabéu, where Thierry Henry’s legendary solo goal secured a 1-0 victory in 2006.
The Gunners also possess a strong recent record against Spanish opposition, with six wins from their last eight such encounters (D1, L1). They’ll be buoyed by how they managed the first leg, both in possession and in their pressing game, suffocating Madrid’s midfield and exposing vulnerabilities in a backline that’s struggled to contain fast transitions this season.
But if there is one club synonymous with turning near-impossible European ties around, it’s Real Madrid. The Santiago Bernabéu has hosted some of the most iconic comebacks in Champions League history, and with stars such as Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham at their disposal, they remain a threat until the final whistle.
Key Stats
- Real Madrid have overturned a first-leg away defeat 25 times in UEFA history – a European record.
- Arsenal have progressed from 18 of the 20 UEFA ties in which they won the home leg.
- Madrid’s last three UCL eliminations came against English clubs.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in nine competitive matches (W4, D5) and have lost just once in 15 games across all competitions.
- The last time Arsenal visited the Bernabéu, they won 1-0 thanks to a famous Thierry Henry goal in 2006.
Players to Watch
Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid)
The Brazilian winger has been a revelation at the Bernabéu in UCL action, scoring six goals across his past five home Champions League games.
Five of those strikes came after half-time, making him a key figure if Madrid are to launch a second-leg revival.
Leandro Trossard (Arsenal)
The Belgian forward is in fine form, having scored after half-time in two of Arsenal’s last three Champions League away matches.
He also netted in the Gunners’ most recent away league outing, and his ability to find pockets of space in tight games could be vital.
Prediction
Real Madrid’s history, talent, and home support mean they cannot be written off, but the deficit they face is daunting. Arsenal, by contrast, are well-drilled, confident, and will likely approach the game with discipline, aiming to hit Madrid on the break. Expect a fierce contest, but the Gunners should have enough of a cushion to reach the last four.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Arsenal (Arsenal win 4-2 on aggregate)
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Real Madrid vs Arsenal | UEFA Champions League 2024/25