Southampton vs Bournemouth Preview
- Bournemouth to win
- Semenyo to score
Southampton welcome high-flying Bournemouth to St Mary’s Stadium in a crucial south coast derby with both teams fighting for very different objectives.
The Saints are in a desperate battle for survival, sitting ten points adrift of safety, while Bournemouth are pushing for European qualification after a strong Premier League campaign.
Southampton: A Last-Ditch Survival Effort?
With just 14 games remaining and a ten-point gap to safety, things are looking bleak for Southampton. Their 2-1 win over Ipswich last time out in the league provided a rare moment of joy, but being knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship side Burnley last weekend was another sign of their struggles.
Their Current Struggles
- Only Derby County’s infamous 2007/08 side (8 points) had fewer points at this stage than Southampton’s 9 points after 24 games.
- Six consecutive home league defeats – their worst home run in the Premier League era.
- They have the league’s worst defence, conceding 54 goals in just 24 games.
Despite these dismal stats, Southampton will aim for back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022 after their Ipswich victory. The Saints’ fans will demand a spirited display, especially in a south coast derby that carries huge significance.
Recent Form (Last Five Matches in All Competitions)
- Southampton 1-2 Burnley (FA Cup) – L
- Ipswich 1-2 Southampton (Premier League) – W
- Southampton 0-2 Leicester (Premier League) – L
- Southampton 0-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League) – L
- Southampton 0-4 Manchester City (Premier League) – L
Why Southampton Can Win
- They won their last league game vs Ipswich and will look to build momentum.
- Paul Onuachu’s late goalscoring form could be crucial in tight situations.
- They are fighting for survival and will be highly motivated in this local derby.
Key Player: Paul Onuachu
The towering Nigerian striker has scored both of his Premier League goals after the 85th minute. If Southampton need a late goal, Onuachu could be their best hope.
Bournemouth: The European Dream Alive?
Bournemouth’s remarkable rise this season has seen them push for a historic first-ever European qualification. Sitting comfortably in the top half, the Cherries are in red-hot form, and a win here would further cement their credentials for a top-seven finish.
What’s Working for Bournemouth?
- Six-match unbeaten away league run (W4, D2) – their longest in Premier League history.
- Strong record vs teams 13th or lower (W7, D1, L1) – proving they dominate struggling sides.
- Dominant in recent south coast derbies, winning the last two H2Hs vs Southampton.
Bournemouth will see this as an opportunity to continue their European push, and with a solid away record, they’ll be confident of securing another three points.
Recent Form (Last Five Matches in All Competitions)
- Bournemouth 2-0 Wolves (Premier League) – W
- Everton 1-1 Bournemouth (FA Cup, won on penalties) – W
- Liverpool 2-0 Bournemouth (Premier League) – L
- Bournemouth 5-0 Nottingham Forest (Premier League) – W
- Bournemouth 3-1 Fulham (Premier League) – W
Why Bournemouth Can Win
- Best-ever away league run (6 games unbeaten).
- Strong recent H2H record vs Southampton (2 straight wins).
- Antoine Semenyo’s electric away form – involved in four goals (2G, 2A) in his last four away games.
Key Player: Antoine Semenyo
The Ghanaian forward has been brilliant on the road, contributing to four goals (2 goals, 2 assists) in his last four away games. His pace and finishing ability will be a major threat against Southampton’s fragile defence.
Head-to-Head Record (Last Five Meetings in All Competitions)
- 19/10/24 – Bournemouth 2-0 Southampton (Premier League)
- 27/04/23 – Southampton 0-1 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 20/10/22 – Bournemouth 0-1 Southampton (Premier League)
- 19/07/21 – Bournemouth 1-1 Southampton (Friendly)
- 20/03/21 – Bournemouth 0-3 Southampton (FA Cup)
Key Trends
- Bournemouth have won the last two league meetings vs Southampton.
- In six Premier League H2Hs at St Mary’s, both sides have two wins each (W2, D2, L2).
- The last three H2Hs have produced under 2.5 goals.
Tactical Insights
Southampton’s Approach
- Play with intensity: This is a must-win game, so they will come out aggressively.
- Look for Onuachu in aerial duels: They will try to exploit Bournemouth’s defence with crosses.
- Defensive discipline: Need to avoid mistakes, as Bournemouth thrive on counter-attacks.
Bournemouth’s Strategy
- Absorb pressure and counter: Southampton will attack, so Bournemouth can punish them on the break.
- Exploit Southampton’s defensive gaps: The Saints have conceded 54 goals in 24 games.
- Use wide areas effectively: Semenyo and Tavernier can stretch Southampton’s defence.
Prediction and Final Thoughts
Bournemouth enter as firm favourites, given their away form and recent dominance over Southampton. However, the Saints are desperate for points, and their need for survival could push them to produce a better performance.
Predicted Scoreline: Southampton 1-3 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth’s attacking quality will prove too much.
- Southampton may get a goal, but their defence is too fragile.
- Antoine Semenyo and to shine for the visitors.
Conclusion
Southampton are running out of time to save their season, and while a win here could be the start of a miracle comeback, Bournemouth’s form, structure, and attacking power make them the favourites. Expect goals, intensity, and drama in this south Coast showdown!
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Southampton v Bournemouth, 2024/25 | Premier League