Southampton vs Burnley FA Cup Preview

• Southampton to qualify
• Under 3.5 goals

Relegation-threatened Southampton welcome Championship high-flyers Burnley in an intriguing FA Cup fourth round clash at St Mary’s Stadium.

While Southampton are battling to avoid an historically bad Premier League season, Burnley are chasing promotion, making this a high-stakes encounter despite both teams having more pressing league concerns.

Southampton: Can the Saints Find Some Cup Joy?

Southampton’s 2-1 win over Ipswich Town last weekend was a rare positive in a miserable Premier League campaign. While relegation seems inevitable, FA Cup success can offer some respite for the club and its fans.

Recent Form & FA Cup Pedigree

• Southampton thrashed Swansea City 4-0 in the FA Cup Third Round, showcasing their ability to dominate lower-league opposition.
• They have reached the FA Cup Fifth Round in each of the last four seasons.

Home Struggles

• Southampton have lost 7 of their last 8 home matches in all competitions.
• Their only home win in that time came in the FA Cup.

Team News

• Jack Stephens and Taylor Harwood-Bellis are set to miss out.
• Ryan Manning, Ryan Fraser, and Cameron Archer are doubts, while Tyler Dibling is expected to be involved.

Key Player: Adam Armstrong

The striker remains Southampton’s biggest goal threat and will be key to unlocking Burnley’s resolute defence.

Burnley: Promotion the Priority, but Cup Upset Possible

Scott Parker’s Burnley side are unbeaten in 19 games across all competitions as they chase an instant return to the Premier League. However, promotion remains the primary goal, meaning changes are expected to be made for this FA Cup tie.

Recent Form & FA Cup History

• Burnley needed Extra Time to beat Reading (League One) in the FA Cup Third Round.
• They reached the Quarter-Finals in 2023, but were knocked out early last season.
• Wolves, another struggling Premier League club, knocked them out of the League Cup earlier this season.

Defensive Strengths

• Burnley have conceded just 2 goals in their last 10 away games.
• They have kept clean sheets in six of their last eight games.

Potential Weaknesses

• Despite their strong defensive record, Burnley have only won 2 of their last 5 away games in normal time.
• Their “boring” style of play has been criticised by fans, as they focus on defensive solidity rather than attacking flair.

Key Player: Josh Brownhill

A midfield leader, Brownhill will play a crucial role in breaking up Southampton’s attacks and dictating play.

Head-to-Head Record

• Last Meeting: Both clubs were in the Premier League in 2021/22, with the last match at St Mary’s ending 2-2.
• Southampton have won just 1 of their last 5 home games against Burnley (D2, L2).

Tactical Insights

Southampton’s Approach

• High press to disrupt Burnley’s defensive setup.
• Possession-based play, using Walker-Peters creativity to unlock Burnley’s compact shape.
• Exploit set-piece opportunities against Burnley’s deep defensive line.

Burnley’s Strategy

• Defensive solidity, aiming to frustrate Southampton.
• Quick counter-attacks, especially using the wings to surprise the opposition.
• Slowing the tempo, preventing Southampton from gaining momentum.

Prediction and Final Thoughts

While Burnley’s defensive record is excellent, Southampton’s superior squad depth and FA Cup focus should give them an advantage at home. Burnley’s likely rotation could leave them vulnerable, especially if Southampton play a full-strength XI.

Predicted Scoreline: Southampton 2-1 Burnley

• Southampton’s home struggles may continue, but their extra quality and FA Cup experience should see them through.
• Expect a tight, low-scoring game, with set-pieces potentially deciding the tie.

Conclusion

Both teams have different priorities—Southampton fighting for pride in a doomed league campaign, while Burnley focus on promotion.

However, with Southampton’s strong FA Cup history and Burnley’s expected squad rotation, the Saints look likely to edge this contest and continue their run of reaching the fifth round for a fifth consecutive season.

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Fixtures – Emirates FA Cup – Competitions | The Football Association