Analysis: How Do Guardiola and Amorim Find the Winning Formula?

All eyes will turn to the Etihad Stadium this Sunday, where Pep Guardiola and Ruben Amorim are under pressure to rejuvenate their struggling teams.

In their historic treble-winning campaign, Manchester City conceded just 43 goals across the entire season. However, they now enter this derby having allowed 23 goals in their past 10 matches across all competitions. This period also marks their worst run of form in 18 years, with seven defeats already.

Meanwhile, Manchester United sit in 13th place — their lowest position after 15 matches since the 1986/87 season.

This Manchester Derby preview brings you the five key talking points to whet the appetite ahead of Sunday’s monumental encounter.

When Was the Last Time City and United Met in Such Poor Form?

It is unprecedented for both clubs to approach a Manchester derby in such collectively poor Premier League form.

City have managed just seven points from their last seven games, while United have claimed only eight points over the same stretch. Historically, at least one of these two sides has entered the derby with nine or more points from their previous seven fixtures.

Although their combined points tally was lower back in 2004, that was primarily due to City’s struggles at the time. With two world-class managers at the helm, these rough patches are unlikely to persist for long, but both clubs face significant transitions.

Amorim is actively experimenting ahead of a major summer overhaul, aiming to identify which players suit his tactical philosophy. Meanwhile, Guardiola appears set to reduce the average age of his squad as they prepare for the 2025/26 campaign.

United’s Set-Piece Vulnerabilities

Manchester City will be boosted by the return of Kevin De Bruyne, and his presence could prove pivotal in exploiting United’s weakness from corners and free-kicks.

De Bruyne is one of the Premier League’s most reliable set-piece specialists, creating an average of 1.44 chances per 90 minutes from dead-ball situations. This places him second only to Fulham’s Andreas Pereira.

United have struggled to defend set-pieces under Amorim. In their last two matches, they conceded three goals from corners. Arsenal, in particular, exposed their zonal marking system with two identical routines. The Gunners cleverly isolated United’s two man-markers and manipulated their zonal defenders, leading to goals for Jurrien Timber and William Saliba.

Even Nottingham Forest took advantage, with Nikola Milenkovic heading in after evading his man-marker, Lisandro Martinez.

United’s set-piece woes have been glaring throughout 2024. They have already conceded 15 goals from corners this year, a stark contrast to their combined tally of 18 across 2021, 2022, and 2023. Alarmingly, 39% of the goals they have conceded this season have come from corners.

Will Amorim stick to his current defensive system, or will he devise a new approach for this crucial clash? Time will tell, but it is a challenge he must address urgently.

Signs of Promise in United’s Attack

Despite their defensive struggles, United have shown creativity in their attacking set-pieces under Amorim. Innovative routines have begun to emerge, and while they haven’t always yielded goals, they demonstrate clear tactical planning.

For instance, in a recent match against Nottingham Forest, United used a wide free-kick to pin defenders and create space for Bruno Fernandes to find an unmarked Amad. Later in the same game, Lisandro Martinez attempted a well-rehearsed volley from a far-post corner.

Similarly, in their clash with Arsenal, United unveiled a clever routine where Antony’s decoy run led to a reverse pass from Fernandes, creating a shooting opportunity for the Brazilian. These inventive moves suggest United’s attacking set-pieces could pose a genuine threat if City’s defenders lose focus.

Could Guardiola Adjust City’s System?

Guardiola might consider altering his formation to counteract City’s recent struggles, having won only once in their last 10 matches across all competitions.

With just three senior defenders—Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, and Josko Gvardiol—likely available, Guardiola could revert to the 3-2-4-1 system that served them so well in the 2022/23 season. Since the start of last season, City have thrived in this setup, winning eight, drawing four, and losing just one of the 13 matches where it was deployed.

If he opts for the 3-2-4-1, Phil Foden’s potential return from illness could see him partner Kevin De Bruyne behind Erling Haaland in a dynamic attacking trio. Foden has an impressive record against United, scoring six goals in his last four Premier League appearances against them, while Haaland boasts nine direct goal involvements against the Red Devils.

Alternatively, Guardiola might deploy Matheus Nunes and Bernardo Silva as wing-backs, providing additional width in a more offensive variation of the system. Ilkay Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic could form a double pivot in midfield, matching up against Amorim’s twin No. 10s.

Can Amorim Replicate His Success Against Guardiola?

Barely six weeks ago, Amorim’s Sporting side achieved a stunning 4-1 victory over City in Lisbon during a UEFA Champions League clash. It was only the third time Guardiola had conceded four goals in his 175-match Champions League managerial career.

Despite being outshot 20-9, Sporting’s disciplined 5-4-1 defensive setup and rapid counter-attacking football proved devastating. They had just 27.3% possession but capitalised on City’s vulnerability to fast breaks.

The question now is whether Amorim can replicate this approach with Manchester United. While he has not yet demonstrated the same level of cohesion with his current squad, his tactical philosophy remains clear: aggressive pressing and swift transitions.

The Verdict

This Manchester derby promises to be a fascinating tactical battle. Both Guardiola and Amorim face mounting pressure, but their proven abilities suggest they are capable of turning their fortunes around. With City’s defensive issues and United’s set-piece vulnerabilities, this match could hinge on who adapts their strategy most effectively.

Expect an intense, high-stakes encounter as these two managers seek to re-establish their dominance. Whatever the result, it will offer a glimpse into the future direction of both clubs.