Who Will Be Relegated from the Premier League in 2024-25? Opta Supercomputer’s Predictions

As the Premier League returns after the final international break of the year, attention turns not only to the battle for the title but also to the fierce fight for survival. Leveraging the power of the Opta supercomputer, we have a look at the relegation probabilities for teams hovering near the danger zone.

While the Premier League mid-table remains historically congested, the situation at the bottom is much clearer. Southampton find themselves four points adrift of safety, with the gap between them and 17th-placed Ipswich Town matching the distance between Manchester United in 13th and Chelsea in 3rd.

Here’s how the supercomputer forecasts the relegation battle unfolding.

Southampton: The Overwhelming Favourites for Relegation

Following a crushing defeat to fellow strugglers Wolves in their last outing, Southampton’s chances of dropping to the Championship stand at an alarming 94.8%, making them the team most likely to be relegated.

Pre-season predictions already had Russell Martin’s squad as favourites to go down, with their odds sitting at 66.7% before the season kicked off. However, a string of poor performances has seen their relegation probability rise by nearly 30 percentage points.

The Saints’ upcoming fixtures offer little respite. Their next five games are against formidable opponents: Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Tottenham. Such a brutal schedule makes their fight for survival even more daunting.

Ipswich Town: Promoted but Under Threat

Despite sitting just above the relegation zone, Ipswich Town are the supercomputer’s second-most likely team to be relegated, with a probability of 67.1%. This figure has remained relatively steady compared to their pre-season prediction of 64.7%.

A recent boost came from their unexpected 2-1 victory over Tottenham, their first win of the season. However, Ipswich will need to build on this momentum if they hope to defy the odds and stay in the Premier League.

Leicester City: A Tough Road Ahead

The third promoted team, Leicester City, currently face a 54.6% chance of relegation. Steve Cooper’s side saw a brief resurgence in October with back-to-back wins, but a three-game winless streak has dampened their progress.

Things are about to get even tougher for Leicester, as they face a challenging stretch of fixtures starting with Chelsea at home. According to the Opta Power Rankings, Leicester’s next 10 games are the second-most difficult in the league, behind only Everton’s schedule.

Everton: A Resilient Start but Challenges Await

Having lost their first four matches of the season, Everton have shown resilience under Sean Dyche, losing just one of their last seven games. Despite this improvement, their relegation chances stand at 17.6%, slightly higher than expected given their position in the table.

December could prove pivotal for the Toffees as they face a string of tough matches, including Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City. This daunting run culminates in a clash against Nottingham Forest, which could play a key role in their survival bid.

Wolves: Danger Despite Easier Fixtures

Wolves’ relegation probability currently sits at 43.4%, reflecting the precarious position they find themselves in. Although they have endured the toughest start to the season in terms of fixture difficulty, the upcoming schedule offers some relief. Only Chelsea and Brighton face easier fixtures in the next stretch, according to Opta rankings.

Their recent victory over Southampton was their first of the season, but Wolves have struggled on the road, failing to win any of their last 11 away games (D4, L7) and conceding 28 goals in the process. To secure safety, they’ll need to capitalise on their upcoming matches, starting with Fulham.

Crystal Palace: Surprising Struggles

Crystal Palace’s relegation probability of 16.9% might seem low, but it’s still surprising given the optimism surrounding Oliver Glasner’s impact last season. Initially considered a top-half contender by the supercomputer, Palace have managed only seven points from their first 11 matches (W1, D4, L6).

Their underlying metrics suggest they’ve been unlucky rather than outright poor. Palace rank 15th in Opta’s expected points table, which accounts for performance metrics like chances created and goals expected. However, their inability to convert opportunities has hurt them, with a league-worst goal conversion rate of 5.1% and a -6.0 difference between expected goals (14.0 xG) and actual goals scored (8).

The supercomputer predicts a turnaround, projecting the Eagles to finish 16th.

West Ham and Brentford: Safe for Now

While West Ham (3.1%) and Brentford (1.2%) have minimal relegation probabilities, they are not entirely out of the conversation. Both teams have demonstrated enough quality to remain comfortable in mid-table, barring a dramatic loss of form.

Relegation Predictions at a Glance

Final Thoughts

The Premier League relegation battle is as unpredictable as ever, with teams facing unique challenges in their quest for survival. While Southampton’s situation appears dire, the fight for safety among Ipswich, Leicester, and Wolves remains fiercely contested.

Everton and Crystal Palace will also need to navigate challenging periods to avoid being drawn into the dogfight. As always, football has a way of surprising us—so expect twists, turns, and drama in the months to come.