Late Goals, Corners, and Fine Margins: Key Premier League Trends

With just 11 matches completed, the Premier League season is already shaping up to be an unforgettable thriller. From Liverpool’s blistering form to Manchester City and Arsenal’s early struggles, there’s no shortage of drama. Even Manchester United, who have already undergone a managerial change, add intrigue to the storylines dominating the headlines.

But what do the numbers say? As the season pauses for its third international break, it’s an opportune moment to delve into the stats shaping this unpredictable campaign.

Fine Margins Define the Table

This season’s Premier League table is tighter than ever. Despite Manchester United’s challenging start, they sit 13th with 15 points—just four points behind Chelsea in third. Such a narrow gap is unprecedented after 11 matches in the competition’s history.

For context, last season the gap between third and 13th was 11 points. In the seasons prior, it was 12 points (2022-23), nine points (2021-22), and eight points (2020-21). This year’s four-point difference represents a notable break from the norm and underscores the razor-thin margins defining the current campaign.

Goals Galore in the Premier League

So far, 314 goals have been scored across 110 matches, averaging 2.85 goals per game. While this is a slight drop from last season’s record-breaking 3.28 goals per game, the trend over recent years still leans towards high-scoring football. This season is currently on pace to match the joint-second highest-scoring season in Premier League history (2022-23).

Notably, the league’s top scorers, Tottenham Hotspur, have netted 23 goals. Hot on their heels are Manchester City and Brentford, each with 22 goals. The attacking flair on display continues to captivate fans worldwide.

Liverpool Leading the Charge

Liverpool have surged to the top of the Premier League table, amassing 28 points from 11 matches. Their record of nine wins, one draw, and one loss mirrors a historical trend—teams with such starts often go on to claim the title.

Out of the 11 previous occasions where a team reached 28 or more points by this stage, eight went on to become champions. Only Newcastle United (1994-95 and 1995-96) and Arsenal (2022-23) failed to capitalise on their strong starts. The last side to begin a campaign better was Liverpool in 2019-20, collecting 31 points en route to their title-winning season.

Clean Sheets: United’s Bright Spot

Manchester United’s early struggles have been well-documented, but their defensive efforts deserve praise. With five clean sheets, they trail only Liverpool, who lead with six. For perspective, United managed just nine clean sheets in the entirety of last season.

This marks the 15th time United have kept five or more clean sheets in their opening 11 games. Historically, such a feat bodes well, as they’ve gone on to win the title in seven of those seasons. Their worst finish in such instances was fifth in 2015-16.

On the other hand, Manchester City have faced defensive difficulties. Pep Guardiola’s side has conceded 13 goals, just one more than United, but they’ve managed only two clean sheets. This is City’s lowest tally at this stage since the 2016-17 season.

Set-Piece Strategy: Arsenal’s Edge

Set-pieces remain a critical part of modern football, and Arsenal have emerged as trendsetters under their set-piece coach, Nicolas Jover. Since the start of last season, the Gunners have scored 27 goals from set-pieces (excluding penalties)—four more than any other Premier League team. They’ve also netted 19 goals from corners in the same period, leading the league in this area.

Interestingly, the proportion of goals scored from set-pieces has been declining. This season, 20% of all goals have come from set-pieces, a slight rise from 19.8% last season but still well below the 23.2% recorded in 2014-15. If this trend continues, the current campaign could rank as the third-lowest in terms of set-piece goals since 2020-21.

Comebacks Highlight the Drama

One of the season’s standout trends is the growing number of comeback victories. So far, 24 matches have seen teams overturn at least a one-goal deficit to secure a win. These comeback wins account for 21% of all Premier League matches this season.

This trend has been steadily increasing. In 2021-22, only 11.6% of matches ended in comebacks. That figure rose to 15% in 2022-23 and 16.6% last season, which was the highest on record. If the current pace continues, 2023-24 will set a new benchmark for comeback victories, adding another layer of unpredictability to an already thrilling season.

What the Numbers Tell Us

The statistics from the first 11 matches of the Premier League season paint a picture of fine margins, attacking brilliance, and tactical evolutions. From Liverpool’s commanding start to Manchester United’s surprising defensive resilience, and Arsenal’s set-piece mastery, every team brings a unique narrative.

As the season progresses, these trends will undoubtedly shift. But one thing is clear—the Premier League remains a spectacle of skill, drama, and unpredictability. Fans can only anticipate more twists and turns as the campaign unfolds.