A Premier League Era Fades: Is the 90-Point Standard Endin

After talking about the relegation battle this season, today we have a look at what might be necessary to win the title in 2024/25. For decades, the 90-point benchmark has defined the path to EPL glory. However, the ongoing season suggests a shift from this high standard in the Premier League title race.

A New Standard Set by Antonio Conte  

The seeds of this 90-point era were sown by Antonio Conte. In the 2016-17 Premier League season, a lineup of managerial heavyweights—Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho, Arsene Wenger, Jurgen Klopp, Mauricio Pochettino, and titleholder Claudio Ranieri—competed fiercely. Conte’s Chelsea responded with a record-breaking 13-game winning streak, amassing 93 points and setting a precedent.

In the years that followed, Premier League champions continued to raise the bar, posting point totals of 100, 98, 99, 86, 93, 89, and 91. Only two of these numbers dipped below 90, both due to unique circumstances: Manchester City’s 86 in the pandemic-affected 2020-21 season and 89 in 2022-23, a year where their focus shifted to securing a treble after clinching the league early.

Pep Guardiola’s Influence and Arsenal’s Challenges  

Guardiola’s perfectionist approach has been the cornerstone of the 90-point era. For contenders like Arsenal, this has meant near-flawless seasons to pose any threat. Initially, Mikel Arteta’s team appeared primed to emulate the efficient dominance of Mourinho’s Chelsea in the mid-2000s. Yet injuries, red cards, and uncharacteristic mistakes have seen Arsenal drop 14 points, signalling inconsistency.

Surprisingly, even City have stumbled, losing two consecutive games and dropping 10 points. While City’s late-season surges are legendary, their current form suggests the bar may be lower this season. Meanwhile, Liverpool’s near-flawless run indicates a potential for a 97-point finish, but uncertainty looms over whether this pace is sustainable.

The Decline of City’s Invincibility  

City’s recent vulnerabilities—partly due to ageing players, injuries, and Rodri’s absence—have raised questions about their dominance. While they recently enjoyed a 32-match unbeaten streak, cracks in their armour began showing last season. If this decline continues, the league could see a return to the sub-90-point title races of the past.

A Competitive and Unpredictable Premier League  

The Premier League’s expanding elite, from a “Big Four” to a “Big Six” and now arguably a “Big Eight,” has intensified competition. Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Brighton have all shown they can challenge top teams like City and Arsenal. Additionally, the rise of mid-tier teams with strong recruitment strategies has made every match a potential upset.  

Brighton, for instance, used their record-high net spend to strengthen their squad, while Nottingham Forest’s astute signings have made them a formidable opponent. Even lower-ranked clubs now possess players capable of competing with the traditional powerhouses.

Tactical Trends and Fatigue at the Top  

Elite teams are increasingly vulnerable to counterattacks, with only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest averaging fewer than one goal conceded per game. Comparatively, in the 2018-19 season—arguably the peak of 90-point dominance—Liverpool and City combined for just 45 goals conceded over 76 games.

Further complicating matters is fixture congestion, with expanded European competitions and the upcoming Club World Cup stretching squads thin. Meanwhile, mid-table teams have grown bolder, as seen in Brighton’s aggressive substitutions and Brentford’s fearless approach at the Etihad.

A More Balanced Title Race?  

Closer scorelines and higher draw rates have reshaped the league dynamics. Arsenal and Chelsea already have four draws each, cutting into their potential point totals. Meanwhile, City’s goal difference—a staggering +79 in 2017-18—is far from being replicated this season.

Conclusion: A Changing Era  

As the 90-point era potentially comes to a close, the Premier League is witnessing a more competitive and unpredictable landscape. Rather than a two-team race to 90-plus points, the 2023-24 season could crown a champion with a total closer to 85. Whether this shift is temporary or signals a broader trend, one thing is clear: the Premier League’s future promises fierce battles and surprises at every turn.