Premier League Managerial Sacking Season Begins: What History Tells Us About Managerial Changes

The “sacking season” has officially kicked off in the Premier League, with Manchester United parting ways with manager Erik ten Hag and bringing in Ruben Amorim to replace him. With his departure, we see the first managerial change of the 2024-25 season—an event that marks a familiar cycle in English football. But why do Premier League clubs turn to managerial changes so often, and how many more are likely to follow

Today EPLNews explores the history, patterns, and most recent statistics of managerial changes in the Premier League, with insights from recent years and odds on who might be next.

You can also have a look at all our other articles about the best managers in Premier League history, significant managerial changes and more.

The Numbers Behind Premier League Managerial Changes

Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, managerial changes have become a staple in each season’s storyline. As data compiled by Sportscasting.com reveals, there is an average of 7.8 managerial changes per season in the Premier League. This figure reflects the high-stakes environment and immense pressure faced by managers, as clubs often turn to fresh leadership when results aren’t aligning with expectations.

Some seasons, however, have seen far more than the average turnover. The 2022-23 season stands out with a record 14 managerial changes—a high point in the Premier League’s history. In contrast, the 1992-93, 1995-96, and 2002-03 seasons each saw only four changes, representing the least volatile periods in terms of managerial turnover.

Over time, a certain rhythm to these changes has developed. Since the 2005-06 season, Premier League clubs have typically made between 8 and 11 managerial changes each campaign, with the 2019-20 season as a notable exception due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. The disruptions caused by the pandemic resulted in an unusual stability, as clubs found it challenging to make drastic mid-season adjustments.

Key Months for Managerial Changes: The “Sacking Season”

Historically, November and December have emerged as prime months for managerial departures. In fact, data from Planetsport.com highlights that 32 managers have been dismissed in November, with another 30 exits occurring in December. This timing is not coincidental; these months precede the January transfer window, giving clubs a chance to reset, re-strategize, and support new managers with fresh signings.

By December, clubs typically have a sense of whether their season goals are within reach, and if not, a managerial change might be seen as a way to save the season. A new manager has the opportunity to evaluate the squad during a brief winter break, work on strategy, and then reinforce key positions during the January transfer window.

Who Could Be the Next Manager to Go?

As of now, Erik ten Hag’s departure from Manchester United has officially launched the “sacking season”. According to betting markets and odds compiled by Talksport.com, Southampton’s Russell Martin is currently the frontrunner to be the next manager dismissed. Wolves’ Gary O’Neil follows closely, and West Ham’s Julen Lopetegui also finds himself on the list of managers under pressure due to an underwhelming start to the season.

For managers, November and December are truly make-or-break months, and betting odds can shift rapidly based on just a few poor performances. The league’s competitiveness and fans’ high expectations make survival difficult for managers without consistent results.

The Big Six’s Managerial Changes vs Manchester City’s Success

One club that has successfully avoided the high manager turnover is Manchester City. Since Pep Guardiola’s arrival in 2016, City’s approach has provided a marked contrast to other top-tier clubs, known as the “Big Six.” In this period, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur have collectively changed their managers a staggering 30 times. Notably, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Tottenham account for 24 of these changes, underscoring a lack of stability at these clubs.

Guardiola’s tenure at Manchester City demonstrates the benefits of stability and continuity. While other clubs in the Big Six grapple with frequent leadership changes, City has remained consistent, building a cohesive and dominant team that has reaped considerable rewards, including multiple league titles. For clubs aiming for long-term success, Manchester City offers a compelling model of how managerial stability can create a winning environment.

Recent Record-Breaking Turnover in Managerial Changes

The 2022-23 season was one for the books, with 14 managerial changes in total. This record surpassed the previous high of 10 changes seen in the 2013-14, 2017-18, and 2021-22 seasons. These figures point to an increasing reliance on managerial changes as clubs look for solutions to underperformance, as well as the intense pressures that managers face.

Clubs are increasingly willing to make managerial changes even during mid-season. For some clubs, a new manager may offer the chance for a quick uplift in results—a phenomenon often referred to as the “new manager bounce”. Between the 2017-18 and 2020-21 seasons, data shows that 20 out of 26 managerial changes led to an immediate improvement in points per match over the next five games. However, whether this uplift can be sustained depends on various factors, including the squad’s quality, the new manager’s adaptability, and fixture difficulty.

The Impact of the “New Manager Bounce”

The “new manager bounce” has become a well-recognized term in football, describing the initial uplift in a team’s performance following a managerial change. This phenomenon is often attributed to the injection of fresh energy and tactical adjustments introduced by the incoming manager. However, the sustainability of this improvement varies.

Data from PremierLeague.com reveals that out of 26 managerial changes between the 2017-18 and 2020-21 seasons, 20 resulted in a higher points-per-match average in the immediate aftermath of the change. However, while many clubs hope for a long-term turnaround, only a select few achieve it, as a manager’s success often hinges on squad quality and the support they receive during transfer windows.

Conclusion: The Ever-Rotating Managerial Carousel of the Premier League

Managerial changes have become an inseparable part of Premier League culture. Clubs are increasingly willing to make mid-season adjustments, especially as the cost of relegation grows higher and fan expectations remain unwavering. Erik ten Hag’s departure from Manchester United has marked the beginning of another season of uncertainty for many Premier League managers.

As we head deeper into the 2024-25 season, the Premier League’s “sacking season” has only just begun. Data suggests that at least seven to eight managerial changes are likely before the season’s end, and history shows that more names will likely join Ten Hag as managerial casualties.

With managers like Russell Martin, Gary O’Neil, and Julen Lopetegui rumoured to be at risk, the next few months could see a flurry of changes. As clubs continue to gamble on fresh leadership, only time will tell which managerial changes will yield success—and which will fall short.