FPL Top Picks for Gameweek 11
Week 10 was a shocking week for most managers thanks to the unexpected results from across England’s best football stadiums. From Manchester City to Arsenal and Aston Villa to Brentford, quite a number of teams that managers counted on for points failed to deliver.
However, we were mostly spot on with our picks, as Chris Wood, Leif Davis and Liam Delap all delivered for FPL managers who trusted our judgement.
Week 11 comes with a similar air of uncertainty around it but as usual, we have looked at the games on paper, studied the data available and come up with a simple analysis and FPL top picks which should guarantee a good week.
Gameweek Analysis
Week 11 comes just before the November international break and after a gruelling round of European and cup competitions, which also means rotations will abound.
The eye-catcher for the week is Chelsea vs Arsenal, which comes after both teams had very different outings in European football in midweek. The Gunners are back to their early days under Mikel Arteta with their performances, which have seen them slip down to fifth place for the first time in almost three years.
Arsenal’s set-piece threat remains real, which Chelsea will be wary of. The Gunners had 14 corners in their match against Inter Milan, which also shows that they will attack the Blues—who are less defensively sturdy than the Italian side—relentlessly.
Their main weapons for this tactic are Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) and Gabriel Magalhães (£6.2m). Martin Ødegaard (£8.2m) could be making his Premier League return in this game as well after a lengthy injury layoff, which increases the threat level of the Gunners against a Chelsea side with arguably the best player in the league at the moment in Cole Palmer (£11.0m) and his trusty sidekick, Senegalese striker Nicolas Jackson (£7.9m), who is slowly shutting his detractors down with sublime centre-forward performances.
This is a tough game to call for value and for this reason, here are two games you can take a look at for those value picks.
Best Value Games for Week 11
West Ham United vs Everton
Both teams suffered heavy defeats last weekend which halted the momentum they had been gathering over time and will be looking to bounce back against each other. In Everton’s case, the defeat was not so heavy but the fact that it came against bottom-of-the-league Southampton is certain to do things to their morale.
Players to watch: Jarrod Bowen (West Ham; £7.5m), Dwight McNeil (Everton; £5.7m), Crysencio Summerville (West Ham; £5.7m), Ashley Young (Everton; £4.5m)
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
This is shaping up to be a battle of the strikers as Chris Wood (£6.3m) and Alexander Isak (£8.3m) will be going head-to-head to prove their worth in front of a teeming crowd at City Ground. Forest have the better defence with players like Ola Aina (£4.6m) who can also give assist points, while Newcastle have the better (on paper) creative players with players like Anthony Gordon (£7.2m).
Best FPL Players for Week 11
Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) – Manchester United
Erik ten Hag is gone and Bruno Fernandes looks like a new man. He only scored his first goal of the season in week 10 but his goal threat is still high enough to see his transfer price remain at £8.2m. This is not a fee that many managers will be willing to pay for just one game week, but when you consider that Leicester City, with their 18 goals conceded and an xGC (expected goals to be conceded) of 19.3, are Manchester United’s next Premier League opponents, the value in this pick may be hard to ignore.
Bryan Mbeumo (£7.8m) – Brentford
The Cameroonian did not yield returns against Fulham but there is no denying that he has been one of the best value picks this season. This statement of fact is evident in how his price has shot up three times since the start of the season. Mbeumo is currently only one goal from his total tally last season (9 goals) and is second behind Erling Haaland in goals in the league. AFC Bournemouth are Brentford’s next opponents and once again, managers are presented with another valuable chance for points haulage with Bryan Mbeumo.
Dominic Solanke (£7.6m) – Tottenham Hotspur
Dominic Solanke’s brace and assist which gave his owners 16 points was the highest points haul of week 10. He will be going from that to Ipswich Town, who are the worst side in the league by every defensive metric. The Tractor Boys have conceded 21 goals and have an xGC of 22.8 goals. Meanwhile, Spurs, with all their troubles, are the best attacking side with 22 goals from an xG of 20.8 – which also places them in first place. Solanke leads the way for Spurs and coming up against Ipswich is a type of value that many will be wrong to ignore.